http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-08/02/content_6899143.htm
(Xinhua)Updated: 2008-08-02 16:51
The needs of the growing numbers of migrant workers in Beijing have been taken into account for the first time by city planners looking to improve the livability of China's capital.
Tan Xuxiang, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Urban Planning deputy director, told a press conference in Beijing on Friday the city had included migrant workers when estimating future population, planning infrastructure and housing projects.
The city planned to cover migrant workers by initiating them into housing projects built for low-income population, he said.
As the national capital and Olympic Games host city, Beijing was currently attracting many migrant workers for its fast infrastructure development, Tan said. "These people, mostly from rural areas, are building the city and may become its permanent residents, which is a way of urbanization."
The number of permanent residents has continued to increase. Last year, 520,000 people moved to Beijing.
"The number has been between 400,000 and 500,000 annually in the past few years," he said. "It's a huge number and great challenge for the city infrastructure."
"We have to figure out solutions for the increasing population." The city government aimed to keep the population under 18 million by 2020. Currently, it stands at 16.33 million, according to the local government.
One solution is to restructure the city's industrial framework. The high-tech industry and service sector fit in the city's development but manufacturing has to develop at an appropriate speed in a bid to avoid overcrowding of people in a small area, he said.
The city was also trying to foster satellite towns to divert newcomers from the downtown. In 2003, about 2.2 million people were living in 10 satellite towns around Beijing.
"We expect the number will increase to 5.7 million (in satellite towns) in 2020. The city will have a balanced layout of population," Tan added.
In addition, the city had also sought cooperation with the neighboring Tianjin municipality and Hebei Province in this field. A grander urban development plan covering three regions was issued early this year.
"With so many people moving in, Beijing also has to improve its management and service to new residents," he said.
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(My comment: very interesting! Will keep an eye on how it further develops, and if other cities are thinking the same thing.
Also, many more questions to be answered: what's the detailed planning process? How will migrants really benefit from affordable housing? What's the procedure of migrant applying for those units? What is the implications of improved housing conditions for other aspects of migrant life, such as education and health care? Would this become a circular process and attrack more migration? How would the government handle it then?)
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Monday, December 1, 2008
國土部官員密集換班 推特殊政策落實保經濟
http://chinareviewnews.net/doc/1008/1/6/6/100816636.html?coluid=45&kindid=0&docid=100816636&mdate=1202091349
2008-12-02 09:13:49
中評社北京12月2日電／據國土資源部官方網站消息，該部涉及土地的多個業務司局近期密集換班，多個業務專、熟悉一線情況的官員調任涉及土地的業務司局正副司長。
《21世紀經濟報道》報道，根據國土資源部有關任免通知，規劃司原司長胡存智調任總規劃師，其規劃司長職位由國家土地督察成都局局長董祚繼擔任。中國地質博物館原館長劉隨臣任新設的調控和監測司司長。國土資源部中國土地礦產法律事務中心主任張婉麗任調控和監測司巡視員。
另外，耕地保護司、土地利用管理司、地籍管理司等涉及土地的業務司均有新任副司長，一直對房地產話題多有評論的土地利用司副司長束克欣免職。
中國社科院城市發展和環境研究中心主任牛鳳瑞評論稱，多個具有一線工作經驗的“新人”擔任土地業務司局主管官員，有利於今後土地政策制定和土地管理工作更結合實際，服務於實際。
落實國務院刺激經濟政策，保障土地供應是當前國土部工作重點。牛鳳瑞等專家預測，一批新土地政策將隨著這些土地業務司局官員履新陸續出台，將有利於在保護耕地的前提下，協調解決保護耕地和保證經濟發展之間的矛盾。
落實大部制改革
一位接近國土資源部的人士表示，“這是部裡落實大部制改革作出的人事調整。”“大部制”改革中，國土資源部被賦予承擔優化國土資源配置職能，突出其資源性資產的管理職能。另外，國土資源部的土地規劃、管理、調控職能被大大加強，新設了調控與監測司。
對於此次人事變動，最引人注目的是新任規劃司司長董祚繼。其任國家土地督察成都局局長之前就曾是規劃司副司長，2006年成立國家土地督察局時，任成都局局長。兩年在地方一線工作的歷練，董祚繼深知地方在土地規劃、報批中的“運作”，其上任規劃司司長，獲將制定更有針對性的保護耕地和防止地方政府突擊用地的政策，防堵疏漏。
國土調控或更趨靈活
在國土部新任土地司局官員中，新成立的調控與監測司同樣備受關注。新任調控與監測司司長的劉隨臣此前一直在礦產口工作，熟悉對礦產資源管理政策。在土地利用總體規劃完成後，國土資源部目前正在進行國土資源規劃的編制工作，該部規劃將土地和礦產資源統籌為國土資源進行規劃，強調其長期、戰略性安排。
此次調任調控與監測司巡視員的張婉麗原來所在的國土資源部法律中心是土地調控政策制定、實施的智囊部門，其本人在土地監測、土地調控政策有效性、差別化土地調控政策等多個土地調控領域均有建樹。
例如，在2007年土地和房價狂飆的時期，張婉麗主持下的法律中心果斷開展了“外資進入房地產”、“開發商囤地”、“土地流拍分析”等多個熱點話題的調研。
前述接近國土資源部的人士說，土地參與宏觀調控的基礎性工作都是法律中心在做，而土地市場動態監測系統是張婉麗主持搭建起來的。
劉隨臣和張婉麗等一批調控和監測司官員履新，或許會帶來一些土地調控的新動向。
中國人民大學管理學院土地系教授嚴金明此前在國土資源部網站訪談中表示，當前保經濟增長的前提下，國土政策可以適當微調。例如，在2009年和2010年的土地利用計劃上，要作出相應的調整安排，要保障中央確定的拉動內需需要的用地指標。
一批新的官員面對新的經濟、土地局勢必將有新的動作。
國土部推特殊政策落實保經濟 中央項目可申請先行用地
另據東方早報報道，為優先保證中央新增千億投資項目所需用地，國土資源部力推沒有先例的特殊政策。
國土資源部昨天發布消息稱，已在近期印發《國土資源部關於為擴大內需促進經濟平穩較快發展做好服務和監管工作的通知》(下稱《通知》)，列出七項舉措落實全國促進經濟發展行動。其中強調，列入新增1000億中央投資計劃清單的項目申請用地預審時，在完成初步設計、確保征地補償安置落實到位的前提下，可申請先行用地。
昨天，國土資源部召開電視電話會議，國土資源部部長徐紹史表示，新增中央投資計劃以及所帶動的大量社會項目即將在短期內激增，對土地和礦產資源的需求強勁。各級國土資源部門要加大對新增中央投資計劃項目的支持力度，確保項目及時合理用地。他要求各級國土資源部門“找准切入點、加快審批、及時供地”。
2008-12-02 09:13:49
中評社北京12月2日電／據國土資源部官方網站消息，該部涉及土地的多個業務司局近期密集換班，多個業務專、熟悉一線情況的官員調任涉及土地的業務司局正副司長。
《21世紀經濟報道》報道，根據國土資源部有關任免通知，規劃司原司長胡存智調任總規劃師，其規劃司長職位由國家土地督察成都局局長董祚繼擔任。中國地質博物館原館長劉隨臣任新設的調控和監測司司長。國土資源部中國土地礦產法律事務中心主任張婉麗任調控和監測司巡視員。
另外，耕地保護司、土地利用管理司、地籍管理司等涉及土地的業務司均有新任副司長，一直對房地產話題多有評論的土地利用司副司長束克欣免職。
中國社科院城市發展和環境研究中心主任牛鳳瑞評論稱，多個具有一線工作經驗的“新人”擔任土地業務司局主管官員，有利於今後土地政策制定和土地管理工作更結合實際，服務於實際。
落實國務院刺激經濟政策，保障土地供應是當前國土部工作重點。牛鳳瑞等專家預測，一批新土地政策將隨著這些土地業務司局官員履新陸續出台，將有利於在保護耕地的前提下，協調解決保護耕地和保證經濟發展之間的矛盾。
落實大部制改革
一位接近國土資源部的人士表示，“這是部裡落實大部制改革作出的人事調整。”“大部制”改革中，國土資源部被賦予承擔優化國土資源配置職能，突出其資源性資產的管理職能。另外，國土資源部的土地規劃、管理、調控職能被大大加強，新設了調控與監測司。
對於此次人事變動，最引人注目的是新任規劃司司長董祚繼。其任國家土地督察成都局局長之前就曾是規劃司副司長，2006年成立國家土地督察局時，任成都局局長。兩年在地方一線工作的歷練，董祚繼深知地方在土地規劃、報批中的“運作”，其上任規劃司司長，獲將制定更有針對性的保護耕地和防止地方政府突擊用地的政策，防堵疏漏。
國土調控或更趨靈活
在國土部新任土地司局官員中，新成立的調控與監測司同樣備受關注。新任調控與監測司司長的劉隨臣此前一直在礦產口工作，熟悉對礦產資源管理政策。在土地利用總體規劃完成後，國土資源部目前正在進行國土資源規劃的編制工作，該部規劃將土地和礦產資源統籌為國土資源進行規劃，強調其長期、戰略性安排。
此次調任調控與監測司巡視員的張婉麗原來所在的國土資源部法律中心是土地調控政策制定、實施的智囊部門，其本人在土地監測、土地調控政策有效性、差別化土地調控政策等多個土地調控領域均有建樹。
例如，在2007年土地和房價狂飆的時期，張婉麗主持下的法律中心果斷開展了“外資進入房地產”、“開發商囤地”、“土地流拍分析”等多個熱點話題的調研。
前述接近國土資源部的人士說，土地參與宏觀調控的基礎性工作都是法律中心在做，而土地市場動態監測系統是張婉麗主持搭建起來的。
劉隨臣和張婉麗等一批調控和監測司官員履新，或許會帶來一些土地調控的新動向。
中國人民大學管理學院土地系教授嚴金明此前在國土資源部網站訪談中表示，當前保經濟增長的前提下，國土政策可以適當微調。例如，在2009年和2010年的土地利用計劃上，要作出相應的調整安排，要保障中央確定的拉動內需需要的用地指標。
一批新的官員面對新的經濟、土地局勢必將有新的動作。
國土部推特殊政策落實保經濟 中央項目可申請先行用地
另據東方早報報道，為優先保證中央新增千億投資項目所需用地，國土資源部力推沒有先例的特殊政策。
國土資源部昨天發布消息稱，已在近期印發《國土資源部關於為擴大內需促進經濟平穩較快發展做好服務和監管工作的通知》(下稱《通知》)，列出七項舉措落實全國促進經濟發展行動。其中強調，列入新增1000億中央投資計劃清單的項目申請用地預審時，在完成初步設計、確保征地補償安置落實到位的前提下，可申請先行用地。
昨天，國土資源部召開電視電話會議，國土資源部部長徐紹史表示，新增中央投資計劃以及所帶動的大量社會項目即將在短期內激增，對土地和礦產資源的需求強勁。各級國土資源部門要加大對新增中央投資計劃項目的支持力度，確保項目及時合理用地。他要求各級國土資源部門“找准切入點、加快審批、及時供地”。
Sunday, November 30, 2008
UC Series of "Conversations with History" interviews
People interviewed include:
Manuel Castells, Noam Chomsky, Kenneth Waltz, John Mearsheimer, Chalmers Jonhson, Susan Shirk, Samantha Power etc.
An interesting survey of opinons across a wide range of topics in politics, international relations and history
Video clips on Youtbue
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Conversations+with+History&search_type=
Main website of the project
http://globetrotter.berkeley.edu/conversations/
(sidenote: I see the glittering ideas, but frankly, professors are not the best public speakers! Now I'd rather read their books or articles than listening to them :P )
Manuel Castells, Noam Chomsky, Kenneth Waltz, John Mearsheimer, Chalmers Jonhson, Susan Shirk, Samantha Power etc.
An interesting survey of opinons across a wide range of topics in politics, international relations and history
Video clips on Youtbue
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Conversations+with+History&search_type=
Main website of the project
http://globetrotter.berkeley.edu/conversations/
(sidenote: I see the glittering ideas, but frankly, professors are not the best public speakers! Now I'd rather read their books or articles than listening to them :P )
停產、半停產 中國大批企業現“悶爐現象”
2008-11-30 17:22:47
在國際金融危機衝擊下，隨著市場急劇萎縮，中國以鋼鐵、焦化、紡織服裝等行業為代表的大批企業目前正處於停產、半停產狀態。
中評社北京11月30日電／新華社經濟形勢調研小分隊記者近日在調研中了解到，在國際金融危機衝擊下，隨著市場急劇萎縮，中國以鋼鐵、焦化、紡織服裝等行業為代表的大批企業目前正處於停產、半停產狀態，雖然生產經營陷入困境，但都在堅持等待市場的復蘇。經濟界人士形象地將之稱為“悶爐現象”，這也成為中國經濟中前所未有的一大課題。
所謂“悶爐”，其實是冶金企業不得已而為之的一種辦法，它使爐子處於保溫狀態，壓縮生產，減少成本，等待市場回暖。目前，包括一些大型鋼廠在內的相當一批冶金企業正主動“悶爐”限產。山西省大批煤焦鐵企業、河北省相當一批鋼鐵廠均集中呈現“悶爐現象”。以山西長治市為例，到11月中旬，全市焦炭、鋼鐵、電石等中小企業停產、半停產企業超過200家，38座125立方米以上的高爐有30座停產。
這種源自煤焦鐵企業的“悶爐現象”，正是當前國內生產遭遇困難企業的一個縮影。目前，紡織服裝、房地產、汽車等受到金融危機衝擊影響較大的企業，其實都呈現出“悶爐現象”。
猶如一枚硬幣的兩面：對處於“悶爐”中的企業，扛過眼前困難，迎來市場復蘇，爐火就會重燃；而扛不過去，爐火熄滅後再不能點燃，企業就不得不承受倒閉的厄運。
“這些企業陷入經營困境，是國際金融危機對中國實體經濟造成衝擊的具體體現。”河南洛陽市發展改革委主任李勝平說，“這些企業正經受嚴峻考驗，它們在‘嚴冬’中堅持等待市場‘春天’。”
記者也發現，“悶爐現象”的發生，雖然有“金融危機衝擊”的外因，但行業內也存有經濟發展方式粗放、產能過剩等一些深刻內因，其中教訓發人深省。
以鋼鐵業為例，中冶南方工程技術有限公司總經理肖白表示：“金融危機只是加速了鋼鐵業調整期的到來。如果不是金融危機，在產能過剩的背景下，鋼鐵業遲早也會出現一次大的調整。”
不過，在一些行業呈現“悶爐現象”的同時，有些企業卻遊刃有餘，格外亮眼。總結其經驗，那些立足科技創新的企業、產業鏈條完整的企業、結構調整到位的企業、抓住機遇積極求變的企業，在這次金融危機中受到的衝擊就較小，不僅能在困境中求得生存，甚至實現逆勢上揚。
利用當前機會，加快自主創新和結構調整，對企業如此，其實對一個地區的產業發展也是如此。目前，已經有相當一批企業和地區在積極行動，主動進行產業升級，以促進經濟的長期可持續發展。
Saturday, November 22, 2008
四萬億保增長 中國成世界經濟“定海神針”
RMB 4 Trillion (US$588 Billion) investment to ensure growth, China bolsters world economy
http://chinareviewnews.net/crn-webapp/doc/docDetailCreate.jsp?coluid=37&kindid=711&docid=100802390&mdate=1117045058
在全球經濟一片愁雲慘霧的形勢下，各國千呼萬喚之中，11月9日，中國國務院宣布十項刺激經濟措施，未來兩年共計投入4萬億人民幣擴大投資拉動內需，標志著中國政府正式出手救市，而且財政和貨幣政策的雙雙轉向也是中國應對當前金融危機一次及時的重大政策調整。輿論認爲，中國也許認爲有必要讓世界再次看到，它不僅具備自救的能力，而且其穩定與發展就是對世界經濟的實質性貢獻。因此，在未來的國際經濟秩序中，中國有理由占據重要的一席之地。本社匯選有關論點，供讀者參考。（評論員：季 實）
一、四萬億刺激經濟 防通脹變成保增長
1、經濟形勢空前嚴峻 中國爲經濟車頭加乾柴
在世界金融危機日趨嚴峻的背景下，在各國的殷切期盼中，鬆動“從緊”已久的貨幣政策，未來兩年投資4萬億元人民幣（約爲5880億美元）拉動內需，中國政府涵蓋基礎設施建設和减輕企業稅負在內的經濟刺激十項方案（國十條）終于在11月9日出臺。（香港中評網）
中國國家統計局局長馬建堂日前承認，中國經濟受國際金融危機影響的嚴重程度遠遠超出預期。這番話其實早就有迹可尋。亞太經合組織（APEC）第15届財長會議本月6日在秘魯城市特魯希略閉幕時，前一天坐了32個小時的飛機飛抵特魯希略的中國財政部長謝旭人不見踪影。原來，他下飛機沒多久就掉頭飛回北京，因爲據稱國內有一些“緊急事務”需要他解决。
是什麽緊急事務？答案在9日晚上揭曉：中國政府宣布以4萬億元（人民幣，約8854億新元）分兩年推動10項措施刺激經濟。看來，就在謝旭人啓程飛往秘魯後，北京收到一系列經濟數字，顯示情况大大不妙，中國經濟在急速下滑，于是急召財長回國，討論如何爲正在失去動力的經濟火車頭加幾把乾柴。
其實，北京本來就會在本月底或下月初召開中央經濟工作會議，這個會議歷來是觀察中國下一年經濟政策的風向標，如今在會議舉行前就大事宣布財經政策大調整與大規模投資計劃，前所未見，足以說明形勢之嚴峻，也是爲昨天（15日）在華盛頓舉行的G20金融峰會做好鋪墊，降低歐美對中國出手救市的期望，消解中國國家主席胡錦濤赴會所面對的壓力。（新加坡《聯合早報》）
2、擴大投資拉動內需 積極財政政策重新啓動
中國政府宣布兩年投資4萬億元經濟刺激，表明中國財政政策從穩健轉向積極，貨幣政策由緊縮轉向適度寬鬆，經濟工作的重點也由“防通脹”變成了“保增長”。（廣東金羊網）
積極的財政政策曾是中國1998年應對亞洲金融危機及國內特大洪灾衝擊的主要做法，在貨幣政策中使用“寬鬆”字眼也是10多年來第一次，尤其是經濟刺激十項方案中有九條與擴大投資相關，這表明擴大投資拉動內需已經成爲保增長的主要手段。而增支、减稅、擴張信貸“三管齊下”，更是顯示了政府對投資的支持力度。正如財政部科研所所長賈康說，財政和貨幣政策雙轉向是中國應對當前金融危機一次及時的重大政策調整。（浙江在綫網）
3、擴大內需“十六字訣” 中國明年“保八”不成問題 就在擊出4萬億元（人民幣）重拳的第二天（10日），中國總理溫家寶緊急召集各省市政府一把手聚京開會，詳解“快、重、准、狠”的擴大內需16字要求。溫家寶反復强調，對于高層前天宣布的促進經濟增長的10條措施，各地各部門“出手要快，出拳要重，措施要准，工作要實”。這些提法乃是首次出現，顯見中國政府不惜一切救經濟的决心。這顯然也是政治總動員，要求地方大員深入領會中央經濟新政主旨，抓好10大措施的落實，以免貽誤時機。（日本《東方時報》）
輿論一般認爲，中國政府“出手快”、“出拳重”，正在采取近10年來最“令人振奮”的經濟刺激方案應對此次全球性金融危機，政策力度甚至較亞洲金融危機時還要大，尤其是4萬億元資金數目之龐大，更爲歷史所僅見。從抗擊亞洲金融風暴時的經驗來看，增加財政支出對于刺激投資拉動內需和經濟刺激增長的短期效果非常明顯。有理由相信，經濟刺激方案將爲中國未來一個時期的經濟運行定下基調，今後幾年宏觀經濟政策的思路也很可能將在這個冬天定型。而且，各部門落實投資計劃的行動之迅速也屬罕見，用國家發改委一位官員的話來說“速度之快超出了我們的想像”。
其實，中國政府對于全球經濟情勢已有清楚研判，拉動經濟三駕馬車中，出口非中國所能掌控，擴大投資以拉動內需，無疑是當前救經濟最可行之策。有經濟分析師認爲，經濟刺激方案將有“立竿見影”之效，4萬億投資可拉動明年GDP約1.8個百分點，中國“保八”將不成問題。（香港中評網）
對所有國家的政府來說，維持經濟高速增長，不僅是經濟工作，也是政治工作，但對中國而言，經濟高速增長的政治意義更甚于一切。有人舉例說，日本可以將近20年陷入低或者零經濟增長，社會仍然平穩運行如常，反觀中國，如果達不到一定水平的經濟增長，最弱勢群體根本分不到經濟增長的好處，很可能會引爆不滿和社會動亂。最近中國三個不同城市在短短一個星期內爆發出租車罷運潮，說明了日子一旦比較難過，早早埋下的定時炸彈就會突然接連爆發。（新加坡《聯合早報》）
二、拉動經濟靠內需 發展模式加速轉型
1、外需熄火投資减速 中國不再甘當“世界工廠”
在席捲全球的金融海嘯衝擊下，從珠三角、長三角向東南沿海地區不斷蔓延開來的倒閉、裁員和减薪潮，使不少企業提前“入冬”。儘管官員與輿論界還在辯論是否存在企業“倒閉潮”問題，但官方數據證實，今年1至8月份，全國規模以上工業企業虧損面18.3%，同比擴大2個百分點。珠三角、長三角及西部地區部分中小企業出現停産、半停産。近幾年如脫繮野馬般狂奔的中國經濟增長，實際上靠的是投資與出口的拉動力，如今，對外貿的過度依賴已經到了必須檢討的時候。（香港《文匯報》）
對于處在高增長階段，而也習慣不斷增長的中國而言，經濟增長减速所傳來的痛感比發達國家更甚。應對危機，從政府官員到經濟學家幾乎都開出同樣的藥方：加速經濟轉型，减低對外依存度，提高內需對國內生産總值（GDP）的貢獻率，提振消費。當前，拉動經濟的三駕馬車是外需，投資、內需，但外需熄火，投資减速，就只能看內需了。（北京中國網）
11月9日頒布的“國十條”計劃以4萬億擴大投資拉動內需，實質上是中國由外向型經濟過渡到內向型經濟的戰略大轉移。戰略轉移的必要性在金融危機之前就已經出現，只是金融危機使這一戰略顯得更加迫切。由于出口市場萎縮，中國沿海省份以出口産品製造和加工爲主的大小企業，日子越來越難過，一些工廠紛紛倒閉，失業人數在不斷增加。這就非常清楚地表明，中國的經濟增長再也不能過于依賴低技術含量的勞動密集型産業，其發展目標再也不能滿足于充當“世界工廠”的角色。（新加坡《聯合早報》）
2、投資對象重在民生 奠定中國未來發展基礎
應當看到，四萬億投資的目的絕不只是爲了保持增長速度這一個目標。應該看到，儘管宏觀經濟政策已經轉向，但國內經濟深層次的矛盾幷未解决，政府占據資源過多，經濟結構畸輕畸重，民衆消費能力低下一直是懸而未决的重大問題，由出口和投資導向到消費導向的轉型也還遠未完成。因此，調整優化經濟結構，轉變經濟發展方式仍然是一項需要長期堅持的戰略性指導方針。
從“國十條”來看，投資對象涉及十大領域，包括醫療、廉價住房、鐵路、公路和機場等基礎設施，另外還有環保項目、科技創新、文教設施等，民生項目顯然占據主導地位，除了有助于止住經濟下滑的勢頭，更是立足經濟長遠發展的奠基之舉，爲將來的發展奠定基礎。（山東《大衆日報》）
3、危機就是改革契機 經濟轉型開始“二次革命”
外界一般將“國十條”解讀爲中國版的經濟刺激計劃。在某種程度上，幷沒有全面準確地反映政策制定者的良苦用心和“國十條”真正的精髓和內涵。這一系列的舉措，貫穿著四條主綫，那就是：民生是根本，轉型是目的，增長是保障，改革是動力，意義之重大遠非“經濟刺激計劃”可以涵蓋。毫無疑問，這是中國經濟轉型的“二次革命”，對中國的意義絕不亞于30年前啓動的改革。如果說30年前的改革改變了中國國力貧窮積弱的局面，爲當代中國創造了非凡的器物文明；那麽，目前要進行的這場戰役則决定了中國未來能否在産業升級、財富分配、制度文明等方面實現實質性躍遷，能否讓經濟發展更加惠及普通民衆，讓民衆分享更多繁榮，其成敗攸關未來30年中國經濟的基本走向和在全球産業鏈中的地位。因此，從出臺的特殊背景和中國改革變遷的路徑來看，“國十條”既是應對全球金融危機的一個特別法案，也可說是中國經濟被迫再次轉型的關鍵之役。（上海《東方早報》）
但這次轉型，面臨的複雜形勢和困難絕不亞于30年前的改革開放。中國改革30年來，經濟高速發展，但在一些領域形成了龐大的“利益集團”。這些“利益集團”在改革的初期可能成爲改革的動力，但當其自身利益越來越龐大的時候，就可能成爲改革的阻力。毫不誇張地說，中國尚未完成産業升級和經濟轉型，在民生領域欠賬累累，和這些“利益集團”有很大關係。如果沒有這次全球金融危機造成的外在壓力迫使“利益集團”讓步，中國經濟的轉型之路也許還很漫長。事實上，近期在全球金融海嘯衝擊中國的背景下，國內財經學者在憂慮之外，又隱然有種自信情緒，原因是全球金融危機在某種程度上成爲中國經濟轉型難得的契機，爲中國改革提供了新的推動力。（北京新華網）
三、爲全球經濟負責 救中國就是救世界
1、“救美”方案另闢蹊徑 中國投資計劃意義深遠
此次由美國擴散至全球的金融危機爆發後，國際輿論圍繞中國在此次危機中的角色問題的討論，一直糾纏于中國要拿出多少外匯儲備來“救美”、怎樣“救美”，比如購買美國的國債，爲美國政府提供充足的資金去拯救金融體系；或者索性直接用外匯儲備來購買美國金融機構的股份和其他金融資産。中國似乎已經陷入左支右絀、別無選擇的困境，不“救美”而放任美國的金融市場崩潰，中國的外匯儲備會有更大損失，如果“救美”，外匯儲備又會大幅貶值。總而言之，似乎除了“救美”，中國就沒有其他選擇。（新加坡《聯合早報》）
可是，中國政府推出的4萬億對內投資刺激經濟的方案，顯然意味著决策層幷沒有被這些議論的狹隘視野所局限，而認爲投資國內是更爲緊迫、更爲重要、也更有效益的事情。從投資收益來看，相對于投資風險非常大的美國金融市場，中國自身的資産無疑更具投資價值。這從一些商業嗅覺敏銳的美國企業在華投資狀况可以看出大概，比如在美國金融危機爆發之後的7月，美國“强生”公司以23億元人民幣收購了中國的化妝品企業“大寶”；8月底，美國飲料業巨頭“可口可樂”宣稱要花費24億美元巨資收購中國最大的果汁飲料企業“匯源”；近期亦有美資對“雙彙集團”興趣濃厚，等等。
因此有學者指出，儘管美國幾乎已經20年一貫地成了資金的淨流入國，但就是在最近這20年中，美國企業和金融機構却一直在堅持不懈地向其他國家，特別是中國輸出資金；中國人不能再“捧著金碗要飯吃”，認爲“外國的月亮一定比中國圓”，自己有資金不投向本國有潜力的企業以獲取更高的收益，却過于迷信美國債券和股票的投資價值。中國對于投資的方向，對于“救美”的責任與義務必須有一種全面的觀察和常識。開放當然極爲重要，但這幷不意味著就要放弃判斷投資價值和討價還價的基本常識。（泰國《世界日報》）
面對世界金融危機，中國最高决策層正式確立了“救中國就是救世界”的戰略，顯示出明確的政治方向感和獨立設置議程的能力。其實，中國好了，世界就有指望。因此，中國“向內看”就是“向外看”和“向前看”，這才是愛國主義和國際主義的結合。此次4萬億對內投資案，標志著中國已經告別一個爲開放而開放的時代，而進入了一個自信而精明地開放的時代。（香港中評網）
2、中國大手筆保增長 救市方案力度遠超各國
實際上，很多人低估了中國擴大內需措施的深遠意義。作爲世界經濟的另外一個火車頭，中國保持高速增長將遏制世界經濟陷入衰退。因此，中國出手救股市保增長的方式雖然不符合西方社會的預期——不是拿外儲去購買外國資産，而是擴大投資拉動國內需求，但不可否認的是，這却讓各國現有經濟刺激方案相形見絀。
長期在聯合國工作的洪平凡博士從全球經濟的角度分析說，自從金融危機爆發以來，世界各國在應對危機的過程中經歷了兩個階段：首先是9月份金融危機集中爆發時期，各國政府基本上是各自爲政，頭痛醫頭，脚痛醫脚，各國救市措施缺乏協調。10月份之後，當金融危機迅速蔓延幷影響實體經濟之後，各國政府的做法出現了根本性的改變，一些具有全球性系統性的方案出臺，但是這些政策都是以穩定金融市場、直接注資銀行填補窟窿爲主要目的，沒有刺激實際經濟增長的措施，救助的力度遠遠不够。因此，中國版的救市方案無疑更受世界媒體的好評。
而且中國經濟刺激方案手筆之大，無疑讓世界各國感到驚喜。相較美國“空頭支票”多于實際支出的7000億美元救市方案，而且日本和德國提出的經濟計劃分別只有515億美元和299億美元，顯然真金白銀的4萬億，是其他大國所無力做到的。難怪澳大利亞總理陸克文稱這一方案不但對中國經濟來說是個“非常好的”消息，對東亞地區來說是“非常好的”消息，對全世界來說也是“非常好的”消息。（香港中評網）
3、救中國就是救世界 中國應有20國峰會話語權
更重要的是，中國經濟刺激方案的出臺，提振了人們對世界經濟的信心，這對于儘快擺脫金融危機至關重要。中國經濟在世界經濟中的位置舉足輕重，中國政府的措施，正是在危機環境中爲提振全球信心下的一劑良藥。在中國政府經濟刺激計劃出臺的當天，全球股市應聲而漲，這已初步顯示了其效果。正如中國總理溫家寶所說，面對當前國際國內的嚴峻形勢，中國首要任務就是保持中國經濟平穩較快發展，防止出現大的起落。實現這個目標，既是中國自身發展的需要，也是對世界經濟的最大貢獻。（北京中國經濟網）
11月15日，20國集團在華盛頓舉行峰會，討論國際金融體制的改革，中國國家主席胡錦濤出席會議。據新加坡《聯合早報》分析，在全球經濟一片愁雲慘霧的形勢下，北京出臺的救市方案自然就顯得不同凡響。中國也許認爲有必要讓世界再次看到，它不僅具備自救的能力，而且其穩定與發展就是對世界經濟的實質性貢獻。因此，在未來的國際經濟秩序中，中國有理由占據重要的一席之地。（香港中評網）
四、各地爭相跑項目 警惕亂投資大躍進
1、發改委前人頭攢動 “跑部錢進”之風甚囂塵上
4萬億元的投資“蛋糕”甫一出爐，國家發改委10日又開會要求，在今年剩餘的50天內把新增的1000億元投資“撥下去”、“花出去”，幷儘快對明後兩年將近1萬億元的投資做出安排，落實到項目和部門。因此，各個地方都在都專門成立向中央要錢、申請項目資金領導小組，一些省市區領導公開要求本轄區地市政府必須抓住“機遇”，爭取中央更多資金，快速上馬項目。
主管投資“分蛋糕”的發改委一時間門庭若市，來自各省市的發改委、招商局官員以及全國企業的各級項目“競跑者”，幾乎踏破了發改委的門檻，希望率先從中分得一杯羹。這幾天，發改委周邊的酒店賓館全部客滿，連周圍胡同的地下室也住滿各方來客，“全是各省市來跑項目的”。（香港《大公報》）
而在席捲全球的金融危機當前，果斷出手加大投資建設，這是外貿、投資、消費三駕馬車中見效最快之舉。在擴大投資的“大氣候”下，爲利用當前的有利時機，一些地方過去那些“半死不活”的項目被迅速激活，而那些以“跑部錢進”備受非議的駐京辦，極可能充當此輪攻關破障的“急先鋒”。（湖南紅網）
2、集中投資倉促上馬 政績工程恐將死灰復燃
其實，各地政府和企業在4萬億元經濟刺激計劃的具體操作細則尚未出臺之前，打馬進京，用意極爲明顯，無非是趕在中央經濟工作會議就具體支出方案决議之前，影響决策。（上海東方網）
而某些地方政府通過游說一旦獲得投資，從歷史情况來看，在缺乏有效的監督機制的情况下，爲了追求政績，這種集中的投資、倉促上馬，很可能將資金用于短期見效快的政績工程、面子工程，甚至可能引發上世紀90年代的重複建設和豆腐渣工程。如果出現這種情况，則4萬億的投入不僅不能帶來中國經濟的健康增長，不能確保民生，提高低收入家庭的生活，反而會引發投資灾難，在全球經濟衰退的周期中貽誤經濟轉型的大局。（北京《新京報》）
3、四萬億投資大蛋糕 考驗政府依法行政能力
11月5日國務院召開常務會議，十項進一步擴大內需，促進經濟平穩較快增長措施出臺，4萬億的投資計劃振奮人心。僅僅5天以後，11月10日，國家發改委召開緊急會議，貫徹落實國務院部署，安排新增長1000億元政府投資工作，而第二天又傳出消息稱千億元投資已分配至11個部委。如此高的效率史上罕見，這樣的效率讓我們看到了中央政府的决心和推行的力度。
顯然，“國十條”的下一步就是如何落實到每一個具體的執行環節中，每一個項目的選擇、每一個項目的投資，如何操作才能實現中央投資的總體目標。4萬個億的投資計劃剛一出臺，就有人開始猜測蛋糕如何分的問題。如何分和如何公平的分恰好反映的是各地方政府的决策水平和决策能力，是這些年來政府依法行政和政府法治建設的成效。（上海解放網）
4萬個億的政府投資用于拉動內需，表面上看是政府的“救市”計劃，是中央政府對經濟的宏觀調控，但是在實際的落實與執行過程中就變成了對很多地方政府依法行政能力的全方位考驗，或者進一步說，就是變成了對政府各職能部門依法行政能力的全方位考驗。我們知道，一個法治化的政府必然有一整套完善的制度設計來規範政府的决策、執行和監督行爲，來保障社會的公平，保障國家發展總體目標的實現。如此大規模的投資計劃要想真正實現宏觀調控的總體目標必然與各級政府的運行方式密切相關。（天津北方網）
依法行政，建設法治政府的概念已經提出多年，而且經過這些年的努力，與之相關的法律法規和制度也已基本健全和完善，比如涉及到政府决策行爲的信息公開條例、聽證制度等；涉及到政府投資行爲的行政許可法、招投標法、政府采購法、反壟斷法等；涉及到政府監督管理的審計法、土地法、環評法等；還有更多相關的行政程序、預防腐敗等法律制度設計。但這只是保障中央政府投資總體目標實現的基本條件，關鍵是這些能够起到規範和監督政府投資行爲的法律制度，以及與之有關的各職能部門，能否像4萬個億激發起了政府的投資熱情一樣，也被激發起來，從而使其在政府决策和决策執行的過程中真正起到應有的作用。對此，不能不保持一個相對理性的態度。（北京《法制日報》）
http://chinareviewnews.net/crn-webapp/doc/docDetailCreate.jsp?coluid=37&kindid=711&docid=100802390&mdate=1117045058
在全球經濟一片愁雲慘霧的形勢下，各國千呼萬喚之中，11月9日，中國國務院宣布十項刺激經濟措施，未來兩年共計投入4萬億人民幣擴大投資拉動內需，標志著中國政府正式出手救市，而且財政和貨幣政策的雙雙轉向也是中國應對當前金融危機一次及時的重大政策調整。輿論認爲，中國也許認爲有必要讓世界再次看到，它不僅具備自救的能力，而且其穩定與發展就是對世界經濟的實質性貢獻。因此，在未來的國際經濟秩序中，中國有理由占據重要的一席之地。本社匯選有關論點，供讀者參考。（評論員：季 實）
一、四萬億刺激經濟 防通脹變成保增長
1、經濟形勢空前嚴峻 中國爲經濟車頭加乾柴
在世界金融危機日趨嚴峻的背景下，在各國的殷切期盼中，鬆動“從緊”已久的貨幣政策，未來兩年投資4萬億元人民幣（約爲5880億美元）拉動內需，中國政府涵蓋基礎設施建設和减輕企業稅負在內的經濟刺激十項方案（國十條）終于在11月9日出臺。（香港中評網）
中國國家統計局局長馬建堂日前承認，中國經濟受國際金融危機影響的嚴重程度遠遠超出預期。這番話其實早就有迹可尋。亞太經合組織（APEC）第15届財長會議本月6日在秘魯城市特魯希略閉幕時，前一天坐了32個小時的飛機飛抵特魯希略的中國財政部長謝旭人不見踪影。原來，他下飛機沒多久就掉頭飛回北京，因爲據稱國內有一些“緊急事務”需要他解决。
是什麽緊急事務？答案在9日晚上揭曉：中國政府宣布以4萬億元（人民幣，約8854億新元）分兩年推動10項措施刺激經濟。看來，就在謝旭人啓程飛往秘魯後，北京收到一系列經濟數字，顯示情况大大不妙，中國經濟在急速下滑，于是急召財長回國，討論如何爲正在失去動力的經濟火車頭加幾把乾柴。
其實，北京本來就會在本月底或下月初召開中央經濟工作會議，這個會議歷來是觀察中國下一年經濟政策的風向標，如今在會議舉行前就大事宣布財經政策大調整與大規模投資計劃，前所未見，足以說明形勢之嚴峻，也是爲昨天（15日）在華盛頓舉行的G20金融峰會做好鋪墊，降低歐美對中國出手救市的期望，消解中國國家主席胡錦濤赴會所面對的壓力。（新加坡《聯合早報》）
2、擴大投資拉動內需 積極財政政策重新啓動
中國政府宣布兩年投資4萬億元經濟刺激，表明中國財政政策從穩健轉向積極，貨幣政策由緊縮轉向適度寬鬆，經濟工作的重點也由“防通脹”變成了“保增長”。（廣東金羊網）
積極的財政政策曾是中國1998年應對亞洲金融危機及國內特大洪灾衝擊的主要做法，在貨幣政策中使用“寬鬆”字眼也是10多年來第一次，尤其是經濟刺激十項方案中有九條與擴大投資相關，這表明擴大投資拉動內需已經成爲保增長的主要手段。而增支、减稅、擴張信貸“三管齊下”，更是顯示了政府對投資的支持力度。正如財政部科研所所長賈康說，財政和貨幣政策雙轉向是中國應對當前金融危機一次及時的重大政策調整。（浙江在綫網）
3、擴大內需“十六字訣” 中國明年“保八”不成問題 就在擊出4萬億元（人民幣）重拳的第二天（10日），中國總理溫家寶緊急召集各省市政府一把手聚京開會，詳解“快、重、准、狠”的擴大內需16字要求。溫家寶反復强調，對于高層前天宣布的促進經濟增長的10條措施，各地各部門“出手要快，出拳要重，措施要准，工作要實”。這些提法乃是首次出現，顯見中國政府不惜一切救經濟的决心。這顯然也是政治總動員，要求地方大員深入領會中央經濟新政主旨，抓好10大措施的落實，以免貽誤時機。（日本《東方時報》）
輿論一般認爲，中國政府“出手快”、“出拳重”，正在采取近10年來最“令人振奮”的經濟刺激方案應對此次全球性金融危機，政策力度甚至較亞洲金融危機時還要大，尤其是4萬億元資金數目之龐大，更爲歷史所僅見。從抗擊亞洲金融風暴時的經驗來看，增加財政支出對于刺激投資拉動內需和經濟刺激增長的短期效果非常明顯。有理由相信，經濟刺激方案將爲中國未來一個時期的經濟運行定下基調，今後幾年宏觀經濟政策的思路也很可能將在這個冬天定型。而且，各部門落實投資計劃的行動之迅速也屬罕見，用國家發改委一位官員的話來說“速度之快超出了我們的想像”。
其實，中國政府對于全球經濟情勢已有清楚研判，拉動經濟三駕馬車中，出口非中國所能掌控，擴大投資以拉動內需，無疑是當前救經濟最可行之策。有經濟分析師認爲，經濟刺激方案將有“立竿見影”之效，4萬億投資可拉動明年GDP約1.8個百分點，中國“保八”將不成問題。（香港中評網）
對所有國家的政府來說，維持經濟高速增長，不僅是經濟工作，也是政治工作，但對中國而言，經濟高速增長的政治意義更甚于一切。有人舉例說，日本可以將近20年陷入低或者零經濟增長，社會仍然平穩運行如常，反觀中國，如果達不到一定水平的經濟增長，最弱勢群體根本分不到經濟增長的好處，很可能會引爆不滿和社會動亂。最近中國三個不同城市在短短一個星期內爆發出租車罷運潮，說明了日子一旦比較難過，早早埋下的定時炸彈就會突然接連爆發。（新加坡《聯合早報》）
二、拉動經濟靠內需 發展模式加速轉型
1、外需熄火投資减速 中國不再甘當“世界工廠”
在席捲全球的金融海嘯衝擊下，從珠三角、長三角向東南沿海地區不斷蔓延開來的倒閉、裁員和减薪潮，使不少企業提前“入冬”。儘管官員與輿論界還在辯論是否存在企業“倒閉潮”問題，但官方數據證實，今年1至8月份，全國規模以上工業企業虧損面18.3%，同比擴大2個百分點。珠三角、長三角及西部地區部分中小企業出現停産、半停産。近幾年如脫繮野馬般狂奔的中國經濟增長，實際上靠的是投資與出口的拉動力，如今，對外貿的過度依賴已經到了必須檢討的時候。（香港《文匯報》）
對于處在高增長階段，而也習慣不斷增長的中國而言，經濟增長减速所傳來的痛感比發達國家更甚。應對危機，從政府官員到經濟學家幾乎都開出同樣的藥方：加速經濟轉型，减低對外依存度，提高內需對國內生産總值（GDP）的貢獻率，提振消費。當前，拉動經濟的三駕馬車是外需，投資、內需，但外需熄火，投資减速，就只能看內需了。（北京中國網）
11月9日頒布的“國十條”計劃以4萬億擴大投資拉動內需，實質上是中國由外向型經濟過渡到內向型經濟的戰略大轉移。戰略轉移的必要性在金融危機之前就已經出現，只是金融危機使這一戰略顯得更加迫切。由于出口市場萎縮，中國沿海省份以出口産品製造和加工爲主的大小企業，日子越來越難過，一些工廠紛紛倒閉，失業人數在不斷增加。這就非常清楚地表明，中國的經濟增長再也不能過于依賴低技術含量的勞動密集型産業，其發展目標再也不能滿足于充當“世界工廠”的角色。（新加坡《聯合早報》）
2、投資對象重在民生 奠定中國未來發展基礎
應當看到，四萬億投資的目的絕不只是爲了保持增長速度這一個目標。應該看到，儘管宏觀經濟政策已經轉向，但國內經濟深層次的矛盾幷未解决，政府占據資源過多，經濟結構畸輕畸重，民衆消費能力低下一直是懸而未决的重大問題，由出口和投資導向到消費導向的轉型也還遠未完成。因此，調整優化經濟結構，轉變經濟發展方式仍然是一項需要長期堅持的戰略性指導方針。
從“國十條”來看，投資對象涉及十大領域，包括醫療、廉價住房、鐵路、公路和機場等基礎設施，另外還有環保項目、科技創新、文教設施等，民生項目顯然占據主導地位，除了有助于止住經濟下滑的勢頭，更是立足經濟長遠發展的奠基之舉，爲將來的發展奠定基礎。（山東《大衆日報》）
3、危機就是改革契機 經濟轉型開始“二次革命”
外界一般將“國十條”解讀爲中國版的經濟刺激計劃。在某種程度上，幷沒有全面準確地反映政策制定者的良苦用心和“國十條”真正的精髓和內涵。這一系列的舉措，貫穿著四條主綫，那就是：民生是根本，轉型是目的，增長是保障，改革是動力，意義之重大遠非“經濟刺激計劃”可以涵蓋。毫無疑問，這是中國經濟轉型的“二次革命”，對中國的意義絕不亞于30年前啓動的改革。如果說30年前的改革改變了中國國力貧窮積弱的局面，爲當代中國創造了非凡的器物文明；那麽，目前要進行的這場戰役則决定了中國未來能否在産業升級、財富分配、制度文明等方面實現實質性躍遷，能否讓經濟發展更加惠及普通民衆，讓民衆分享更多繁榮，其成敗攸關未來30年中國經濟的基本走向和在全球産業鏈中的地位。因此，從出臺的特殊背景和中國改革變遷的路徑來看，“國十條”既是應對全球金融危機的一個特別法案，也可說是中國經濟被迫再次轉型的關鍵之役。（上海《東方早報》）
但這次轉型，面臨的複雜形勢和困難絕不亞于30年前的改革開放。中國改革30年來，經濟高速發展，但在一些領域形成了龐大的“利益集團”。這些“利益集團”在改革的初期可能成爲改革的動力，但當其自身利益越來越龐大的時候，就可能成爲改革的阻力。毫不誇張地說，中國尚未完成産業升級和經濟轉型，在民生領域欠賬累累，和這些“利益集團”有很大關係。如果沒有這次全球金融危機造成的外在壓力迫使“利益集團”讓步，中國經濟的轉型之路也許還很漫長。事實上，近期在全球金融海嘯衝擊中國的背景下，國內財經學者在憂慮之外，又隱然有種自信情緒，原因是全球金融危機在某種程度上成爲中國經濟轉型難得的契機，爲中國改革提供了新的推動力。（北京新華網）
三、爲全球經濟負責 救中國就是救世界
1、“救美”方案另闢蹊徑 中國投資計劃意義深遠
此次由美國擴散至全球的金融危機爆發後，國際輿論圍繞中國在此次危機中的角色問題的討論，一直糾纏于中國要拿出多少外匯儲備來“救美”、怎樣“救美”，比如購買美國的國債，爲美國政府提供充足的資金去拯救金融體系；或者索性直接用外匯儲備來購買美國金融機構的股份和其他金融資産。中國似乎已經陷入左支右絀、別無選擇的困境，不“救美”而放任美國的金融市場崩潰，中國的外匯儲備會有更大損失，如果“救美”，外匯儲備又會大幅貶值。總而言之，似乎除了“救美”，中國就沒有其他選擇。（新加坡《聯合早報》）
可是，中國政府推出的4萬億對內投資刺激經濟的方案，顯然意味著决策層幷沒有被這些議論的狹隘視野所局限，而認爲投資國內是更爲緊迫、更爲重要、也更有效益的事情。從投資收益來看，相對于投資風險非常大的美國金融市場，中國自身的資産無疑更具投資價值。這從一些商業嗅覺敏銳的美國企業在華投資狀况可以看出大概，比如在美國金融危機爆發之後的7月，美國“强生”公司以23億元人民幣收購了中國的化妝品企業“大寶”；8月底，美國飲料業巨頭“可口可樂”宣稱要花費24億美元巨資收購中國最大的果汁飲料企業“匯源”；近期亦有美資對“雙彙集團”興趣濃厚，等等。
因此有學者指出，儘管美國幾乎已經20年一貫地成了資金的淨流入國，但就是在最近這20年中，美國企業和金融機構却一直在堅持不懈地向其他國家，特別是中國輸出資金；中國人不能再“捧著金碗要飯吃”，認爲“外國的月亮一定比中國圓”，自己有資金不投向本國有潜力的企業以獲取更高的收益，却過于迷信美國債券和股票的投資價值。中國對于投資的方向，對于“救美”的責任與義務必須有一種全面的觀察和常識。開放當然極爲重要，但這幷不意味著就要放弃判斷投資價值和討價還價的基本常識。（泰國《世界日報》）
面對世界金融危機，中國最高决策層正式確立了“救中國就是救世界”的戰略，顯示出明確的政治方向感和獨立設置議程的能力。其實，中國好了，世界就有指望。因此，中國“向內看”就是“向外看”和“向前看”，這才是愛國主義和國際主義的結合。此次4萬億對內投資案，標志著中國已經告別一個爲開放而開放的時代，而進入了一個自信而精明地開放的時代。（香港中評網）
2、中國大手筆保增長 救市方案力度遠超各國
實際上，很多人低估了中國擴大內需措施的深遠意義。作爲世界經濟的另外一個火車頭，中國保持高速增長將遏制世界經濟陷入衰退。因此，中國出手救股市保增長的方式雖然不符合西方社會的預期——不是拿外儲去購買外國資産，而是擴大投資拉動國內需求，但不可否認的是，這却讓各國現有經濟刺激方案相形見絀。
長期在聯合國工作的洪平凡博士從全球經濟的角度分析說，自從金融危機爆發以來，世界各國在應對危機的過程中經歷了兩個階段：首先是9月份金融危機集中爆發時期，各國政府基本上是各自爲政，頭痛醫頭，脚痛醫脚，各國救市措施缺乏協調。10月份之後，當金融危機迅速蔓延幷影響實體經濟之後，各國政府的做法出現了根本性的改變，一些具有全球性系統性的方案出臺，但是這些政策都是以穩定金融市場、直接注資銀行填補窟窿爲主要目的，沒有刺激實際經濟增長的措施，救助的力度遠遠不够。因此，中國版的救市方案無疑更受世界媒體的好評。
而且中國經濟刺激方案手筆之大，無疑讓世界各國感到驚喜。相較美國“空頭支票”多于實際支出的7000億美元救市方案，而且日本和德國提出的經濟計劃分別只有515億美元和299億美元，顯然真金白銀的4萬億，是其他大國所無力做到的。難怪澳大利亞總理陸克文稱這一方案不但對中國經濟來說是個“非常好的”消息，對東亞地區來說是“非常好的”消息，對全世界來說也是“非常好的”消息。（香港中評網）
3、救中國就是救世界 中國應有20國峰會話語權
更重要的是，中國經濟刺激方案的出臺，提振了人們對世界經濟的信心，這對于儘快擺脫金融危機至關重要。中國經濟在世界經濟中的位置舉足輕重，中國政府的措施，正是在危機環境中爲提振全球信心下的一劑良藥。在中國政府經濟刺激計劃出臺的當天，全球股市應聲而漲，這已初步顯示了其效果。正如中國總理溫家寶所說，面對當前國際國內的嚴峻形勢，中國首要任務就是保持中國經濟平穩較快發展，防止出現大的起落。實現這個目標，既是中國自身發展的需要，也是對世界經濟的最大貢獻。（北京中國經濟網）
11月15日，20國集團在華盛頓舉行峰會，討論國際金融體制的改革，中國國家主席胡錦濤出席會議。據新加坡《聯合早報》分析，在全球經濟一片愁雲慘霧的形勢下，北京出臺的救市方案自然就顯得不同凡響。中國也許認爲有必要讓世界再次看到，它不僅具備自救的能力，而且其穩定與發展就是對世界經濟的實質性貢獻。因此，在未來的國際經濟秩序中，中國有理由占據重要的一席之地。（香港中評網）
四、各地爭相跑項目 警惕亂投資大躍進
1、發改委前人頭攢動 “跑部錢進”之風甚囂塵上
4萬億元的投資“蛋糕”甫一出爐，國家發改委10日又開會要求，在今年剩餘的50天內把新增的1000億元投資“撥下去”、“花出去”，幷儘快對明後兩年將近1萬億元的投資做出安排，落實到項目和部門。因此，各個地方都在都專門成立向中央要錢、申請項目資金領導小組，一些省市區領導公開要求本轄區地市政府必須抓住“機遇”，爭取中央更多資金，快速上馬項目。
主管投資“分蛋糕”的發改委一時間門庭若市，來自各省市的發改委、招商局官員以及全國企業的各級項目“競跑者”，幾乎踏破了發改委的門檻，希望率先從中分得一杯羹。這幾天，發改委周邊的酒店賓館全部客滿，連周圍胡同的地下室也住滿各方來客，“全是各省市來跑項目的”。（香港《大公報》）
而在席捲全球的金融危機當前，果斷出手加大投資建設，這是外貿、投資、消費三駕馬車中見效最快之舉。在擴大投資的“大氣候”下，爲利用當前的有利時機，一些地方過去那些“半死不活”的項目被迅速激活，而那些以“跑部錢進”備受非議的駐京辦，極可能充當此輪攻關破障的“急先鋒”。（湖南紅網）
2、集中投資倉促上馬 政績工程恐將死灰復燃
其實，各地政府和企業在4萬億元經濟刺激計劃的具體操作細則尚未出臺之前，打馬進京，用意極爲明顯，無非是趕在中央經濟工作會議就具體支出方案决議之前，影響决策。（上海東方網）
而某些地方政府通過游說一旦獲得投資，從歷史情况來看，在缺乏有效的監督機制的情况下，爲了追求政績，這種集中的投資、倉促上馬，很可能將資金用于短期見效快的政績工程、面子工程，甚至可能引發上世紀90年代的重複建設和豆腐渣工程。如果出現這種情况，則4萬億的投入不僅不能帶來中國經濟的健康增長，不能確保民生，提高低收入家庭的生活，反而會引發投資灾難，在全球經濟衰退的周期中貽誤經濟轉型的大局。（北京《新京報》）
3、四萬億投資大蛋糕 考驗政府依法行政能力
11月5日國務院召開常務會議，十項進一步擴大內需，促進經濟平穩較快增長措施出臺，4萬億的投資計劃振奮人心。僅僅5天以後，11月10日，國家發改委召開緊急會議，貫徹落實國務院部署，安排新增長1000億元政府投資工作，而第二天又傳出消息稱千億元投資已分配至11個部委。如此高的效率史上罕見，這樣的效率讓我們看到了中央政府的决心和推行的力度。
顯然，“國十條”的下一步就是如何落實到每一個具體的執行環節中，每一個項目的選擇、每一個項目的投資，如何操作才能實現中央投資的總體目標。4萬個億的投資計劃剛一出臺，就有人開始猜測蛋糕如何分的問題。如何分和如何公平的分恰好反映的是各地方政府的决策水平和决策能力，是這些年來政府依法行政和政府法治建設的成效。（上海解放網）
4萬個億的政府投資用于拉動內需，表面上看是政府的“救市”計劃，是中央政府對經濟的宏觀調控，但是在實際的落實與執行過程中就變成了對很多地方政府依法行政能力的全方位考驗，或者進一步說，就是變成了對政府各職能部門依法行政能力的全方位考驗。我們知道，一個法治化的政府必然有一整套完善的制度設計來規範政府的决策、執行和監督行爲，來保障社會的公平，保障國家發展總體目標的實現。如此大規模的投資計劃要想真正實現宏觀調控的總體目標必然與各級政府的運行方式密切相關。（天津北方網）
依法行政，建設法治政府的概念已經提出多年，而且經過這些年的努力，與之相關的法律法規和制度也已基本健全和完善，比如涉及到政府决策行爲的信息公開條例、聽證制度等；涉及到政府投資行爲的行政許可法、招投標法、政府采購法、反壟斷法等；涉及到政府監督管理的審計法、土地法、環評法等；還有更多相關的行政程序、預防腐敗等法律制度設計。但這只是保障中央政府投資總體目標實現的基本條件，關鍵是這些能够起到規範和監督政府投資行爲的法律制度，以及與之有關的各職能部門，能否像4萬個億激發起了政府的投資熱情一樣，也被激發起來，從而使其在政府决策和决策執行的過程中真正起到應有的作用。對此，不能不保持一個相對理性的態度。（北京《法制日報》）
打工經濟受重創 農民工成最大邊緣群
"Migrant worker economy" hit hard, rural migrant workers becoming the biggest disadvantaged group
http://chinareviewnews.net/doc/1008/0/1/7/100801738.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=100801738
中評社香港11月16日電／對許多地區來講，農民工外出打工是地方經濟發展的重要支柱之一，即“打工經濟”。如重慶農村目前每年輸出勞動力近700萬，這些農民工在為打工地創造財富的同時，每年也會給重慶市帶來上百億的收入。在河南東北部的農業大縣，農民工轉移的收入佔農民純收入的60％以上。而河南1700萬農民工，按每人每年平均打工收入1萬元計算，就是1700個億。
據文匯報報道，有專家稱，金融危機已經影響到中國內地農村，人們在談論華爾街金融精英失業的同時，卻很少想到中國倒閉企業所造成的失業者很少是“精英”階層。“農民工返鄉潮”說明經濟危機開始波及佔中國地域最廣闊、擁有人口最多、發展最緩慢、平均經濟條件最差的廣大農村和農民。農村居民的實際收入將縮減，進而影響農村的消費。國家最近幾年才剛剛引導起來的龐大市場，眼下或此後可能會再度陷入疲軟。而國家擴大內需的導向，卻會被裝入農民空空的衣兜，這樣又將影響整個經濟的發展。
“農民工”即農民工人，是個很特殊的群體。他們是農業戶口，但從事著非農業的工作；他們生活在城市，但又不能完全融入城市的生活。傳統意義上講，他們既不是真正的農民，也不是真正的工人，是一種“邊緣人”。他們通常是城市被僱傭者中勞動條件最差、工作環境最苦、收入最低的群體，同時也是中國產業工人中人數最大的群體，2008年，內地農民工數量已超過2.1億。但由於戶籍制的存在，這一群體並不能享受到因城市經濟發展而帶來的社會福利。
農民工失業 易引社會動盪
江西人歐曉林是返鄉大軍中的一員。他原在深圳寶安區一家小型洗水廠做鉗工，由於今年工廠的美國客戶紛紛減少採購量，工廠訂單急劇減經營，老闆為了改變局面，嘗試做內銷，但由於原本外銷的服裝檔次較高，轉內銷後國內市場無法消化，到了今年9月工廠徹底陷入困境，老闆亦突然不知去向，全廠100多工人不但賠償金無法拿到，最後兩個月的工資也打了水漂。
歐曉林稱，工人們到勞動部門申訴無果，只好認倒霉開始陸續返鄉，臨走時每人帶走一大摞牛仔褲。
據悉，在珠三角像歐曉林這樣因工廠倒閉而被拖欠工資的農民工比比皆是。據勞動部門統計，今年上半年廣東省各級勞動保障監察機構受理勞資糾紛案件同比增加47%。30人以上的群體性事件宗數、人數同比上升了65%和60%；各級勞動仲裁機構立案處理數量是去年同期的2.9倍。前七月，全省共處理勞動爭議案件15.1萬宗，約佔全國案件總數的四分一，為去年案件總數的125%。
城市“新貧民” 農村“新遊民”
更有專家警告，隨著被迫返鄉和不肯返鄉的農民工越來越多，如果地方政府不想法幫其找到出路，這些沒有高等學歷、沒有一技之長、沒有穩定收入，實際上已經失地又失業的群體就可能成為城市的“新貧民”和農村“新遊民”，甚至會引發社會動盪。
農民工第二代：沒有退路的城市新族群
他們的年齡從兩、三歲到二、三十歲；他們常常踟躅在城市的大街小巷；他們當中的很多人眼神狂躁而迷茫……他們是農民工流動人口中的第二代，與他們的父輩相比，城市與家鄉的割裂在他們身上更難統一。而在這場被迫的返鄉大潮中，他們何去何從更讓人迷惘。
農民工子女：分不清韭菜麥子
農民工流動人口第二代主要包括兩種人，一種是自小跟隨外出打工的父母到城市生活的農民工子女，一種是生於20世紀80年代，為了“改變生活方式”而到城市打工的新移民。
對於農民工子女，這些孩子自小生活在城市邊緣，有的甚至根本就出生在城市裡。他們上的是農民工子弟小學，看的是大城市的燈紅酒綠，他們很多人的記憶裡只有城市生活的種種，卻根本記不得家鄉的模樣。在返鄉大潮下，這些孩子將被迫跟隨父母回到陌生的家鄉，可回去後做什麼？種地麼？我們採訪到的一位農民工就說，他的孩子們“連韭菜和麥子都分不清楚”。
城市新移民：死也不要回農村
相對於改革開放後第一批赴大城市淘金的先行者，出生於20世紀80年代新農民，更多的是為了改變生活方式和尋求更好的發展機會而外出打工，因此，他們希望融入城市主流社會的願望特別強烈，更希望被尊重和認可。來自廣東的調查顯示，儘管目前城市的管理、服務與青年農民工的實際需要相差甚遠，但仍有27.4％的人希望一直呆在城市參與城市建設和分享城市發展成果。
這一族群年齡小，受教育程度普遍較高，他們中的很多人崇尚享受，注重攀比，甚至出現“月光族”。調查顯示，有68.5％的人收入主要用於自己的吃穿住行，工資很少寄回家，70％的人擁有手機或小靈通。他們來城市的目的已不再像他們的父輩那樣是為了多賺點錢，而是要更好的享受城市生活，做個“城市人”，他們當中常有人說“老家太苦，打死也不回去了”。這不一樣的第二代，他們的出路在哪裡？
一個農民工的憂慮：回家了，幹什麼？
作為一個農民工現在只能回家，我以為我還是比較清楚的。這並不是我們的自由選擇，而是企業倒閉被迫的。拿我來說，回家後起碼短時間我是不會去種地的，更不用說我的孩子了，他們從來就沒有下過地，根本就不知道怎麼種地。他們連韭菜和麥子都分不清。
說實在話，即使我回農村了，我也不會種地。就靠這幾年掙的錢，種一點菜，在老家躲過兩年再說吧……
做工一輩子，頭上還是有“農民”二字
我覺得我們農民工，特別是年齡還不算大的，現在都很迷茫，不知道將來的生活是怎樣的，甚至過了今年不知道明年會在什麼地方？城市裡是不可能接受我們的，就是打上一輩子工，做上一輩子實際上的工人，但頭上還是有“農民”二字。
至於到城市裡買房、子女上學、社會保障、養老，想都不要想。最終我們還是要回自己的家鄉去，這是唯一的出路。可是，我們回去了能幹什麼呢？工業品那麼貴，農產品又那麼賤，況且在工廠裡做慣了的，等老了回去還做得了什麼呢？
http://chinareviewnews.net/doc/1008/0/1/7/100801738.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=100801738
中評社香港11月16日電／對許多地區來講，農民工外出打工是地方經濟發展的重要支柱之一，即“打工經濟”。如重慶農村目前每年輸出勞動力近700萬，這些農民工在為打工地創造財富的同時，每年也會給重慶市帶來上百億的收入。在河南東北部的農業大縣，農民工轉移的收入佔農民純收入的60％以上。而河南1700萬農民工，按每人每年平均打工收入1萬元計算，就是1700個億。
據文匯報報道，有專家稱，金融危機已經影響到中國內地農村，人們在談論華爾街金融精英失業的同時，卻很少想到中國倒閉企業所造成的失業者很少是“精英”階層。“農民工返鄉潮”說明經濟危機開始波及佔中國地域最廣闊、擁有人口最多、發展最緩慢、平均經濟條件最差的廣大農村和農民。農村居民的實際收入將縮減，進而影響農村的消費。國家最近幾年才剛剛引導起來的龐大市場，眼下或此後可能會再度陷入疲軟。而國家擴大內需的導向，卻會被裝入農民空空的衣兜，這樣又將影響整個經濟的發展。
“農民工”即農民工人，是個很特殊的群體。他們是農業戶口，但從事著非農業的工作；他們生活在城市，但又不能完全融入城市的生活。傳統意義上講，他們既不是真正的農民，也不是真正的工人，是一種“邊緣人”。他們通常是城市被僱傭者中勞動條件最差、工作環境最苦、收入最低的群體，同時也是中國產業工人中人數最大的群體，2008年，內地農民工數量已超過2.1億。但由於戶籍制的存在，這一群體並不能享受到因城市經濟發展而帶來的社會福利。
農民工失業 易引社會動盪
江西人歐曉林是返鄉大軍中的一員。他原在深圳寶安區一家小型洗水廠做鉗工，由於今年工廠的美國客戶紛紛減少採購量，工廠訂單急劇減經營，老闆為了改變局面，嘗試做內銷，但由於原本外銷的服裝檔次較高，轉內銷後國內市場無法消化，到了今年9月工廠徹底陷入困境，老闆亦突然不知去向，全廠100多工人不但賠償金無法拿到，最後兩個月的工資也打了水漂。
歐曉林稱，工人們到勞動部門申訴無果，只好認倒霉開始陸續返鄉，臨走時每人帶走一大摞牛仔褲。
據悉，在珠三角像歐曉林這樣因工廠倒閉而被拖欠工資的農民工比比皆是。據勞動部門統計，今年上半年廣東省各級勞動保障監察機構受理勞資糾紛案件同比增加47%。30人以上的群體性事件宗數、人數同比上升了65%和60%；各級勞動仲裁機構立案處理數量是去年同期的2.9倍。前七月，全省共處理勞動爭議案件15.1萬宗，約佔全國案件總數的四分一，為去年案件總數的125%。
城市“新貧民” 農村“新遊民”
更有專家警告，隨著被迫返鄉和不肯返鄉的農民工越來越多，如果地方政府不想法幫其找到出路，這些沒有高等學歷、沒有一技之長、沒有穩定收入，實際上已經失地又失業的群體就可能成為城市的“新貧民”和農村“新遊民”，甚至會引發社會動盪。
農民工第二代：沒有退路的城市新族群
他們的年齡從兩、三歲到二、三十歲；他們常常踟躅在城市的大街小巷；他們當中的很多人眼神狂躁而迷茫……他們是農民工流動人口中的第二代，與他們的父輩相比，城市與家鄉的割裂在他們身上更難統一。而在這場被迫的返鄉大潮中，他們何去何從更讓人迷惘。
農民工子女：分不清韭菜麥子
農民工流動人口第二代主要包括兩種人，一種是自小跟隨外出打工的父母到城市生活的農民工子女，一種是生於20世紀80年代，為了“改變生活方式”而到城市打工的新移民。
對於農民工子女，這些孩子自小生活在城市邊緣，有的甚至根本就出生在城市裡。他們上的是農民工子弟小學，看的是大城市的燈紅酒綠，他們很多人的記憶裡只有城市生活的種種，卻根本記不得家鄉的模樣。在返鄉大潮下，這些孩子將被迫跟隨父母回到陌生的家鄉，可回去後做什麼？種地麼？我們採訪到的一位農民工就說，他的孩子們“連韭菜和麥子都分不清楚”。
城市新移民：死也不要回農村
相對於改革開放後第一批赴大城市淘金的先行者，出生於20世紀80年代新農民，更多的是為了改變生活方式和尋求更好的發展機會而外出打工，因此，他們希望融入城市主流社會的願望特別強烈，更希望被尊重和認可。來自廣東的調查顯示，儘管目前城市的管理、服務與青年農民工的實際需要相差甚遠，但仍有27.4％的人希望一直呆在城市參與城市建設和分享城市發展成果。
這一族群年齡小，受教育程度普遍較高，他們中的很多人崇尚享受，注重攀比，甚至出現“月光族”。調查顯示，有68.5％的人收入主要用於自己的吃穿住行，工資很少寄回家，70％的人擁有手機或小靈通。他們來城市的目的已不再像他們的父輩那樣是為了多賺點錢，而是要更好的享受城市生活，做個“城市人”，他們當中常有人說“老家太苦，打死也不回去了”。這不一樣的第二代，他們的出路在哪裡？
一個農民工的憂慮：回家了，幹什麼？
作為一個農民工現在只能回家，我以為我還是比較清楚的。這並不是我們的自由選擇，而是企業倒閉被迫的。拿我來說，回家後起碼短時間我是不會去種地的，更不用說我的孩子了，他們從來就沒有下過地，根本就不知道怎麼種地。他們連韭菜和麥子都分不清。
說實在話，即使我回農村了，我也不會種地。就靠這幾年掙的錢，種一點菜，在老家躲過兩年再說吧……
做工一輩子，頭上還是有“農民”二字
我覺得我們農民工，特別是年齡還不算大的，現在都很迷茫，不知道將來的生活是怎樣的，甚至過了今年不知道明年會在什麼地方？城市裡是不可能接受我們的，就是打上一輩子工，做上一輩子實際上的工人，但頭上還是有“農民”二字。
至於到城市裡買房、子女上學、社會保障、養老，想都不要想。最終我們還是要回自己的家鄉去，這是唯一的出路。可是，我們回去了能幹什麼呢？工業品那麼貴，農產品又那麼賤，況且在工廠裡做慣了的，等老了回去還做得了什麼呢？
農民工度過失業衝擊波需政府援手
Government's response needed for migrant workers hit by umployment wave
http://chinareviewnews.net/doc/1007/9/4/1/100794183.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=100794183
中評社北京11月8日電／因為出口為主的制造企業大批停產,沿海地區許多民工出現“返鄉潮”。農民工數量龐大,農業部部長孫政才今年8月提供的數據是,2007年中國農村外出就業勞動力達1.26億人,鄉鎮企業從業人員為1.5億,只要十分之一的民工就業受到影響,絕對值就將達到2200萬人。
新京報社論稱，農民工處於弱勢地位,在改革三十年史上烙下深重印跡的溫總理為民工討薪的佳話,從一個側面反映了民工薪資權利保障的現實。中國很多出口制造企業以壓低生產要素、壓低價格贏得國際競爭,勞動力價格被一壓再壓,這使得農民工多年來處於僅够溫飽,而無法滿足對自己及下一代進行投資的困境,形成低級打工者代際傳遞的貧困鏈條。
迄今為止,農民工仍受縛於土地,他們中的許多人沒有得到城鎮居民的社會保障。更嚴重的是,一些沿海城市政府要求工廠為農民工繳納社保,農民工一旦返鄉,這筆錢將成為地方政府的又一筆收入。(which local governments?)
如今中國經濟遭受金融危機衝擊,農民工群體遭遇嚴重衝擊。首當其衝的是失業衝擊,香港工業總會會長陳鎮仁近期表示,珠三角7萬家港資企業中,年底時可能會有四分之一倒閉,而這些工廠所聘用的絕大多數都是來自內地的農民工。
文章表示，農民工失業尚未納入有關部門失業率統計口徑,從表面上看不會形成嚴重的就業問題,然而農民工就業占據了制造業就業的幾乎半壁江山,如今卷鋪蓋回家種地,只能加劇失業情況,城市化進程也會遭到梗阻。
10月28日到31日,人力資源和社會保障部部長尹蔚民來到廣東,調研金融危機背景下的就業問題。陪同此次調研的廣東省勞動和社會保障廳人士透露,“國家希望廣東方面積極穩妥做好倒閉企業的勞動保障工作,地方要做到預警并做好應對”。地方政府需要及時跟蹤企業運營情況,保障在出口經濟失速、大批工廠經營困難的情況下失業民工不被欠薪。此外,還應對可能出現的勞資糾紛潮開辟“綠色通道”,以加快解決勞資問題。
文章指出，對於中國經濟與城市化而言,社會穩定的一個重要前提,是讓離開土地進入工業鏈條的農民工有光明的就業前景。
目前,政府已開啓了積極財政政策的大門,在鐵路、軌道交通等領域投入巨資,解決經濟與就業問題。在大規模基礎建設中,可以更具體地明確農民工就業指標,給予吸納90%以上的民營中小企業提供包括稅收在內的多種優惠扶持,也可以考慮以降低個人所得稅與增值稅轉型的辦法拉動內需,使農民工不至於成為土地與工廠之間的無巢候鳥。這些措施可以成為根治目前農民工失業衝擊波的治本之策。
http://chinareviewnews.net/doc/1007/9/4/1/100794183.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=100794183
中評社北京11月8日電／因為出口為主的制造企業大批停產,沿海地區許多民工出現“返鄉潮”。農民工數量龐大,農業部部長孫政才今年8月提供的數據是,2007年中國農村外出就業勞動力達1.26億人,鄉鎮企業從業人員為1.5億,只要十分之一的民工就業受到影響,絕對值就將達到2200萬人。
新京報社論稱，農民工處於弱勢地位,在改革三十年史上烙下深重印跡的溫總理為民工討薪的佳話,從一個側面反映了民工薪資權利保障的現實。中國很多出口制造企業以壓低生產要素、壓低價格贏得國際競爭,勞動力價格被一壓再壓,這使得農民工多年來處於僅够溫飽,而無法滿足對自己及下一代進行投資的困境,形成低級打工者代際傳遞的貧困鏈條。
迄今為止,農民工仍受縛於土地,他們中的許多人沒有得到城鎮居民的社會保障。更嚴重的是,一些沿海城市政府要求工廠為農民工繳納社保,農民工一旦返鄉,這筆錢將成為地方政府的又一筆收入。(which local governments?)
如今中國經濟遭受金融危機衝擊,農民工群體遭遇嚴重衝擊。首當其衝的是失業衝擊,香港工業總會會長陳鎮仁近期表示,珠三角7萬家港資企業中,年底時可能會有四分之一倒閉,而這些工廠所聘用的絕大多數都是來自內地的農民工。
文章表示，農民工失業尚未納入有關部門失業率統計口徑,從表面上看不會形成嚴重的就業問題,然而農民工就業占據了制造業就業的幾乎半壁江山,如今卷鋪蓋回家種地,只能加劇失業情況,城市化進程也會遭到梗阻。
10月28日到31日,人力資源和社會保障部部長尹蔚民來到廣東,調研金融危機背景下的就業問題。陪同此次調研的廣東省勞動和社會保障廳人士透露,“國家希望廣東方面積極穩妥做好倒閉企業的勞動保障工作,地方要做到預警并做好應對”。地方政府需要及時跟蹤企業運營情況,保障在出口經濟失速、大批工廠經營困難的情況下失業民工不被欠薪。此外,還應對可能出現的勞資糾紛潮開辟“綠色通道”,以加快解決勞資問題。
文章指出，對於中國經濟與城市化而言,社會穩定的一個重要前提,是讓離開土地進入工業鏈條的農民工有光明的就業前景。
目前,政府已開啓了積極財政政策的大門,在鐵路、軌道交通等領域投入巨資,解決經濟與就業問題。在大規模基礎建設中,可以更具體地明確農民工就業指標,給予吸納90%以上的民營中小企業提供包括稅收在內的多種優惠扶持,也可以考慮以降低個人所得稅與增值稅轉型的辦法拉動內需,使農民工不至於成為土地與工廠之間的無巢候鳥。這些措施可以成為根治目前農民工失業衝擊波的治本之策。
人社部改革後設25個司局 首設農民工工作司
Chinese Ministry of Personnel and Social Secuirty set up a special divison for migrant workers
http://chinareviewnews.net/doc/1007/1/0/2/100710288.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=100710288
中評社香港8月2日電／作為探索大部制改革的部委之一，新組建的人力資源和社會保障部內設25個司局，涉及整合的多達13個司局，並新設6個司局。
該部昨日召開組建以來首次新聞發布會，新聞發言人尹成基表示，作為探索部門之一，通過三定方案體現大部門體制，是其重要責任。
新京報報道，據尹成基介紹，根據國務院通過的該部“三定”方案，新設6個司，分別是勞動監察局、農民工工作司、調解仲裁管理司、事業單位人員管理司、政策研究司、人力資源市場司。
勞動監察司的設置，旨在應對隨著勞動者維權意識增强而給勞動部門帶來的工作壓力；調解仲裁管理司則根據全國人大常委會通過的勞動爭議調解仲裁法的需求而設置；人力資源市場司旨在努力建立全國統一的人力資源市場。
此外，事業單位改革已進行多年，此次該部專設事業單位人員管理司，意在集中力量推進事業單位管理。根據該部今年下半年的工作安排，該部將配合國務院法制辦修改《事業單位人事管理暫行條例》，並盡快制定相關配套政策，研究修改《事業單位工作人員獎勵暫行規定》和《事業單位工作人員處分暫行規定》。
據人社部“三定”方案，中國將首次專門針對農民工工作設立一個司。不過，昨天尹成基未詳細介紹該司的職責。
十屆全國人大代表、對外經貿大學保險學院孫潔博士分析，由於農民工具有流動性強、流動量大、勞動關係複雜的特點，單獨設置農民工司，有可能意味著要針對農民工社保問題單獨設計制度，相關政策亦可能獨立。
此外，孫潔認為，考慮到農民工社保關係的轉移接續是整個社保關係轉移接續的難中之難，單獨為其設計社保制度亦有可能為其他不同情況的社保關係轉移接續提供借鑒和經驗積累。
■ 工作安排
●國有薪酬管理
下半年人社部將研究規範國企負責人薪酬管理和改革國有企業工資總額管理辦法的意見；
●企業工資分配
下半年人社部將改進和加强對企業工資分配的宏觀指導，以工資集體協商為重點，推進企業工資決定機制改革；
●社保關係轉移
已經兩次寫進總理政府工作報告的社保關係轉移接續辦法有望今年出台；
●養老保險改革
事業單位養老保險制度改革試點正在進行啓動前的準備工作，而農民工養老保險辦法和社會保險關係轉移接續辦法正在抓緊制定和徵求意見。
http://chinareviewnews.net/doc/1007/1/0/2/100710288.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=100710288
中評社香港8月2日電／作為探索大部制改革的部委之一，新組建的人力資源和社會保障部內設25個司局，涉及整合的多達13個司局，並新設6個司局。
該部昨日召開組建以來首次新聞發布會，新聞發言人尹成基表示，作為探索部門之一，通過三定方案體現大部門體制，是其重要責任。
新京報報道，據尹成基介紹，根據國務院通過的該部“三定”方案，新設6個司，分別是勞動監察局、農民工工作司、調解仲裁管理司、事業單位人員管理司、政策研究司、人力資源市場司。
勞動監察司的設置，旨在應對隨著勞動者維權意識增强而給勞動部門帶來的工作壓力；調解仲裁管理司則根據全國人大常委會通過的勞動爭議調解仲裁法的需求而設置；人力資源市場司旨在努力建立全國統一的人力資源市場。
此外，事業單位改革已進行多年，此次該部專設事業單位人員管理司，意在集中力量推進事業單位管理。根據該部今年下半年的工作安排，該部將配合國務院法制辦修改《事業單位人事管理暫行條例》，並盡快制定相關配套政策，研究修改《事業單位工作人員獎勵暫行規定》和《事業單位工作人員處分暫行規定》。
據人社部“三定”方案，中國將首次專門針對農民工工作設立一個司。不過，昨天尹成基未詳細介紹該司的職責。
十屆全國人大代表、對外經貿大學保險學院孫潔博士分析，由於農民工具有流動性強、流動量大、勞動關係複雜的特點，單獨設置農民工司，有可能意味著要針對農民工社保問題單獨設計制度，相關政策亦可能獨立。
此外，孫潔認為，考慮到農民工社保關係的轉移接續是整個社保關係轉移接續的難中之難，單獨為其設計社保制度亦有可能為其他不同情況的社保關係轉移接續提供借鑒和經驗積累。
■ 工作安排
●國有薪酬管理
下半年人社部將研究規範國企負責人薪酬管理和改革國有企業工資總額管理辦法的意見；
●企業工資分配
下半年人社部將改進和加强對企業工資分配的宏觀指導，以工資集體協商為重點，推進企業工資決定機制改革；
●社保關係轉移
已經兩次寫進總理政府工作報告的社保關係轉移接續辦法有望今年出台；
●養老保險改革
事業單位養老保險制度改革試點正在進行啓動前的準備工作，而農民工養老保險辦法和社會保險關係轉移接續辦法正在抓緊制定和徵求意見。
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Shanghai illagers get ￥280,000 household as dividend of land leasing and development
上海旗忠村给村民分红1亿元 每户获28万分红
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2008-11-20/004316686694.shtml
原载：21世纪经济报道10月31日，上海市闵行区马桥镇旗忠村文化活动中心门口。”拿到钞票了伐？”一位红毛衣村妇刚跨进来，迎面而来的另两个村民就这样问道。
在这个“寒冬”来临之前，旗忠村拿出了一亿元巨款分给了村民。全村359户村民，每户都拿到了28万元的“分红”。不过，其名义是“修缮住房借款”，每个村民需要打一张“借条”。
旗忠，以大师杯网球赛所在地而闻名，稍早之前的1980年代，他们就以农民进工厂、住别墅而被称为”华东第一村“。
进入2000年后，旗忠村又迎来了第二轮“繁荣”。旗忠村周边的7个半村的土地(旗忠村本村土地1987年被征完)，共13000亩土地，统一以旗忠村的名义被征用起来，建设成为高尔夫球场、网球馆和高档别墅的聚集区。
这些被征用的农用地，在村民们看来已经累积出极大的价值。按照2005年旗忠村旗龙置业转让股份的价格看，一亩地的收益为100万以上，13000亩土地的总收益应该高于130亿。
10月12日，刚刚落幕的十七届三中全会通过了推进农村改革发展的决定。旗忠村的这笔土地“分红款”，正好发生在中央农村土地流转新政之后。
旗忠村村委书记高凤池回避了本报记者的采访。此前他透过《中国经营报》，承认了“(旗忠村)部分人年收入确实比较高，分配也不够公开”。
一份残缺的批文
旗忠村一共发生过两次大规模征地，一次是在1987年，一次则在2002年以后。尤其后一次征地，使得土地的巨大价值横亘在了村民面前。
承办大师杯网球赛，成为这个“华东第一村”近年扩张中最奋力的一跳。其在2002年一举提出了征地9000亩的宏大计划，其中，场馆建设1000亩，联动商品房开发8000亩。
仅仅是旗忠一个村并没有这么多土地。
闵行区年鉴显示，截止2007年，旗忠村的总人口为359户1391人，共有2640亩土地。从2000年开始，旗忠村并入马桥镇其他村落的一些土地。2002年开始获批征用的13000多亩土地(实际征用6000余亩)就牵涉到与旗忠村相邻或相近的工农村、望海村、青登村、马桥村、联工村、联盟村、联建村、俞塘村等7个半村(俞塘村只涉及一半土地)。
对于这次大规模的征地，上海市府办、上海市发展计划委员会(上海市发改委前身)、上海市闵行区人民政府、上海市体育局等相关单位皆出具了相应的文件，予以申请以及批准。但这些文件的内容已经不能从公开渠道一一查到，唯一查到的一份文件还有两处重要内容被人涂抹，无法看清。
记者获得的这份文件名为”关于对上海旗忠森林体育城网球场申请土地优惠政策处理意见的报告“，文号为沪计调(2002)057号，由上海市计委出具。该文件显示，旗忠体育城网球场馆计划于2004年建成，场馆占地1000亩，联动商品房占地8000亩，总投资为14亿元左右。
在该批文下发之前，闵行区政府和上海市体育局还联名提出了两点要求，恳请市政府对“场馆及联动开发商品房土地的平衡费及土地出让金给予减免"，同时希望“以协议批租的形式给予供地”。
但计委批复的文件中，却有两处关键字样已经被涂抹。文件批复意见之一称，以场馆用地1000亩、联动开发商品房用地8000亩为最高限额，以市计委和市房地资源局等有关部门对场馆和联动开发商品房项目实际用地的批复分别作为依据，将需要……(后一行重要意见被涂抹)。
涉及市城投的出资问题，文件称，由于市城投公司承担大量市政基础设施建设任务，近日(当时为2002年)因成立市上海地产(集团)有限公司，又从市城投公司划出一部分资产，偿债难度更大，因此，我们建议由……(后一行被涂抹)。
记者随后在公司章程找到了具体实施的方案。公司章程第十三条规定，乙方(市城投)以该项目用地需向市财政缴纳的耕地开垦费、土地出让金以及该项目道路、天然气排管等大市政配套资金作为投资。
这个章程条款证明，市城投并没有实际投入任何资金，而是以本该上缴市财政的费用作为了市城投的出资。
批复意见之二是针对征地的方案，该文件建议原则上按照《上海市土地使用权出让招标拍卖试行办法》(以下简称《上海土地招拍挂试行》)，有关部门确定具体操作办法。
从内容上看，这个《上海土地招拍挂试行》虽与国土部下发的《招标拍卖挂牌出让国有土地使用权规定》(以下简称《招拍挂规定》)基本保持一致，却额外注明“经市政府批准以协议方式出让土地使用权的项目和市政府有关部门认定的旧区改造项目除外”。
而这份被涂抹过的文件就证明，旗忠村的土地正是“经过市政府批准”之列，可以游离于公开招标的流程以外。
据当地村民介绍，在这批征用的13000亩土地中，约有9000多亩属于基本农田。而由闵行区政府发布的征地方案公告中也提及大部分征用土地的性质皆为耕地。
从时间上看，征地方案公告的发布也远迟于实际征地的时间。2003年10月，工农村等几个村就陆续开展征地，2005年11月，旗忠体育城网球城投入使用，并分别租给上海大师杯网球赛以及第八届国际游泳锦标赛，作为比赛场地。但这些土地的征地方案公告则迟至2005年2月，才由闵行区人民政府发布。
34家置业公司切割？
追索土地去向的过程中，记者发现，旗忠集团将大部分土地都切割成35公顷以下的“豆腐块”，并注册了多达34个项目公司，并一一受让这些土地。
工商资料显示，这些小型置业公司有着惊人的相似之处。它们分两批成立于2004年8月12日和2004年12月30日，股份构成皆为旗忠集团出资450万元、旗忠房地产公司或旗忠驾驶员培训学校出资50万元，注册地址一律为闵行区马桥镇光华路2118号C栋。
记者到达光华路2118号时，未能在几栋半旧的办公楼内找到任何一家注册在此的相关置业公司，只有上海旗忠森林体育城经济园区有限公司等几家公司挂牌。上述公司工作人员对置业公司的办公地点不置可否。
这些置业公司的受让高峰开始于2004年。记者查阅了所有相关的官方网站，统计出2004至2006年间，这34家旗忠集团名下的置业公司共获得地块为6294.96亩，占旗忠村所有出让土地的8成之多。其中，2004年和2005年的出让规模达到了峰值，分别为2794亩和3120亩。
如此大规模的土地出让却通过了一次次不厌其烦地“拆解”来完成。根据记者查阅的上海市闵行区规划管理局颁发《中华人民共和国建设用地许可证》(以下简称《许可证》)，2004年-2006年间，上述34家置业公司受让土地的最小面积仅为12公顷，最大也不过31公顷。
而1999年实施的《土地管理法》规定，35公顷以上的基本农田(耕地)、70公顷以上的非基本农田的征用，必须由国务院批准。
似乎是与此相配套，这34家置业公司取得土地的方式并非“公开招标”，而是“邀请招标”。
中国土地市场网显示，这些“邀请招标”的土地成交价格奇低。以一块批准用地时间为2006年1月1日、编号为马桥镇177号的地块为例，其“邀请招标”的楼面成交均价仅为394.9元/平方米，即每亩价格26.3万元。若以之前一年2005年的公开数据比较，拥有旗忠村土地的相关置业公司“上海旗龙置业有限公司”就以股权转让方式转让名下所有旗忠土地，且受让公司又补交了土地出让金，两项相加，价格达到82万元/亩，是前者的三倍多。
两者的巨大差价，显然是由不同的招标方式形成的。国土资源部于2002年7月1日起开始实施《招拍挂规定》就明确规定，商业、旅游、娱乐和商品住宅等各类经营性用地，必须以招标、拍卖或者挂牌方式出让。
这9000亩土地的转让都在2002年之后，属于“商业、旅游、娱乐”的范畴，理应通过公开招标的方式。“邀请招标是一个最常见的‘玩法’，因为受让方必须是被邀请的对象，好控制。如果公开招标的话，这些地怎么可能这么便宜。”一位相关法律人士解释了两种招标方式的不同。
陆续套现
土地出让完成之后，2006年上海社保案发。这个征地-出让-地产开发的链条突然断了最后一个环节，而停滞下来。
以34家置业公司中的4家为例，上海超爽置业有限公司、上海雪真置业有限公司、上海热和置业有限公司、上海云府置业有限公司都是由旗忠集团和旗忠房地产开发经营公司(以下简称旗忠地产)两家投资设立。在旗忠地产的年检资料备注中称，截至2008年4月，上述置业公司均与旗忠集团联营，但因故至今未正式营运，挂账至今。
除去旗忠集团的相关置业公司，另有房地产大鳄也在这个土地出让盛宴中，通过非正常方式“获益颇丰”。其中，绿城森林高尔夫别墅开发有限公司(以下简称绿城高尔夫)获益最为明显。
这家绿城高尔夫的注册资金为1亿元，其中浙江绿城集团(3900.HK)占51%，上海绿宇房地产开发有限公司占股31%，北京中青旅创格科技有限公司占18%。其中，上海绿宇是绿城集团在上海的主要地产运作平台。
根据上海城市规划网公布的信息，绿城高尔夫于2006年4月分四次，以划拨方式获得了项目名称为绿城玫瑰园B块、C块、D块、E块四个地块共828.5亩的土地。
该官方网站上提供了由上海市闵行区城市规划局出具的“建设用地规划许可证”，许可证中明确表示“准予办理土地划拨手续”。
从2006年11月开始，绿城高尔夫的其他土地取得并没有通过划拨的方式。但自彼时至2007年，绿城高尔夫以非划拨方式获得的土地则仅为133.8亩。
而另一家国有土地大鳄中房集团，也隐现此间。有报道称，其在此开发的110栋别墅在2007年已经以1.2亿美元出售给凯雷，成功套现。
在2005年2月，另一家置业公司“旗龙置业”则更早地套现走人。其将全部股权以26000万港元出售给GISLINGHAM，后者以外资投资者的身份在2006年3月又支付了5894.8066万元土地出让金。公开信息显示，这家GISLINGHAM是一家在英属维尔京群岛注册的离岸公司，股东是李嘉诚控制下的和黄集团和长实集团，各占50%股份。
无论是与旗忠集团控股的34家小型置业公司，还是有着雄厚资本的绿城高尔夫，它们的2007年度工商年检报告都宣称这些公司自成立起并无营业收入。
但可以在各类中介机构查询到的是，在旗忠村联动商品房区域内的山水世纪别墅业已售罄，绿城高尔夫名下的绿城玫瑰园也于2007年1月开盘，别墅均价达到每平方米3万元。
110亿元级差地租？
而作为利益分配的最下游，旗忠村村民此次每户28万元“分红”，其准确的名称却是“住房修缮借款”。按照村里的说法，1980年代末修建的农民别墅至今已经20多年，需要修缮，故“借”给村民。
作为一个坐落在上海近郊的村子，旗忠村的收入主要由两部分构成，一是土地转让溢价，二是村办企业利润，这其中包括了村里的主干企业华普电缆厂的利润，也包括旗忠高尔夫球场，网球场和体育公园的运营收入。
在2002年以前，作为一个工业村，旗忠村的收入主要来自其几个村办企业，包括华普电缆厂(原马桥电缆厂)、马桥纺织器材厂、马桥电器材料厂以及旗忠汽车驾驶员培训中心等。
这其中，利润最好的企业是华普电缆厂(2004年转制为华普电缆有限公司，以下简称华普电缆厂)和旗忠汽车驾驶员培训中心(后改称上海市驾驶员第一培训中心，以下简称“旗忠驾校”)，根据闵行区年鉴，华普电缆厂2002年实现净利润2.3亿元，2003年实现利润2.7亿，同年，马桥金属线材厂净利润490万元；2002年，旗忠驾校利润约2000万，(估算2000年净利润1300万)大致算来，旗忠村2002年年收益在2.5亿元左右。
但是，直到此时，旗忠村1300名村民所获得的收益是一栋农民别墅和一份进厂工作的机会，月平均工资不超过千元。
早在1980年代末，地方政府就以统一规划的名义，将村里的土地集中起来开发利用。农民们交出所有土地(人均1.3亩)。但据村民回忆，当时没有获得任何土地补偿款，得到的只是得到3万元无息贷款和一栋需要付建房款的农民别墅。
按照村民们的说法，3万元无息贷款分六年还清；每户村民一栋农民别墅，别墅的性质为小产权，村民们为此还需付出3万-8万元不等的建房款。
2002年之后，随着席卷全国的房地产开发浪潮，坐落在上海近郊的旗忠村跟着做土地开发。土地开发一跃超过村办企业，成为旗忠村的主要利润之源。
2002年4月，建设部出台关于土地出让必须实行“招挂拍”文件，市内土地稀缺，沪郊土地一夜之间升值数倍。其时，上海国际赛车场项目由于引入F1，周边土地升值数倍(普遍从20万一亩到200万左右)，旗忠村启动高尔夫球场、网球场，联动开发周边房地产。
但是旗忠村的土地已经被征用完毕，在闵行区和原上海市计委的许可下，旗忠村最终征地13000亩，范围涉及周边的星星村、工农村、联工村等7个半村。
此时，按照2002年4月颁布的《上海市征用集体所有土地拆迁房屋补偿安置若干规定》(以下简称13号文)的规定，征用集体所有土地房屋的补偿安置基本精神为货币化安置，安置标准为不低于原有住宅面积和住宅标准。但是，7个半村的村民失去了所有土地和房屋，得到的仅仅是和原有住宅面积相当的商品房和一份镇保养老保险。(各村情况稍有出入，但大体相当)
工农村村民沈佩兰告诉记者，该村村民除了得到一套和原有住房面积相等的住房外，50岁以下的拿到9600元待业金，50岁以上的则进入镇保，每月养老金600元。
在工农村附近的星星村，村民原有房屋补偿标准被定为每平方米仅200-300元不等，宅基地可通过置换或1100元/平方米得到一定补偿。
联工村村民同样以“拆一还一”的标准被安置到廉价板式住宅区，安置房面积不足原有住房的，以每平方米500元的标准给予补贴，超出则收取每平方米1000-2000元不等的购房费。
据知情人士告诉记者，此次征地采用了上海独有的为失地农民提供保障的镇保方式，即失地农民转为非农户口，通过小城镇养老保险获得将来的保障，旗忠村为每个征地农民付给上海市小城镇社会保险中心5.8万元左右。
这样算来，2002年此番征地，全部补偿款不过16.9亿(800元/平方米×918083.88+5.8万×16556)(计算方式说明：800是补偿平均价格，总拆迁面积根据闵行年鉴上农村家庭人均居住面积乘以总人口估算)。
至此，通过1987年和2002年两次征地，旗忠村以及周边的7个半村村民失去他们赖以生存的全部土地，所获得的全部收益不超过20亿(16.9亿+2.6亿)。
而以2005年旗龙置业转让所有股份的价格看，一亩地的收益为100万以上，13000亩土地的总收益应该高于130亿。照此估算，其间存在110亿元的级差地租。不过这一说法未得到旗忠方面的证实。
此前中国经营报报道，今年3月份，旗忠村一村民偶然拾得了村干部遗忘在小区门卫室的账本，其中记录了旗忠集团董事会核心成员及旗忠村村委会成员的部分分配情况，分别分得800万、400多万和100多万不等。
这次下发的28万元，村民们普遍认为这是一种变相的分红补偿款，他们压根没打算还。“到时候再说。”村民们说。
记者 陈小莹 陈欢 实习记者 李景
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
How subprime works?
Trigger of the current financial crisis vividly explained in this series of comics
http://docs.google.com/TeamPresent?docid=ddp4zq7n_0cdjsr4fn&skipauth=true&pli=1
forwarded by my friend Shomon
A quote
“Nothing can stop the car being the most coveted product that comes with development.”
--Carlos Ghosn, the boss of the Renault-Nissan alliance, at this year’s Beijing motor show.
forwarded by my friend Amit.
--Carlos Ghosn, the boss of the Renault-Nissan alliance, at this year’s Beijing motor show.
forwarded by my friend Amit.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Study Abroad Flourishes, With China a Hot Spot
New York Times - November 17, 2008
By TAMAR LEWIN
Record numbers of American students are studying abroad, with especially strong growth in educational exchanges with China, the annual report by the Institute on International Education found.
The number of Americans studying in China increased by 25 percent, and the number of Chinese students studying at American universities increased by 20 percent last year, according to the report, “Open Doors 2008.”
“Interest in China is growing dramatically, and I think we’ll see even sharper increases in next year’s report,” said Allan E. Goodman, president of the institute. “People used to go to China to study the history and language, and many still do, but with China looming so large in all our futures, there’s been a real shift, and more students go for an understanding of what’s happening economically and politically.”
While the traditional study-abroad sites for Americans — Britain, Italy, Spain and France — still attract more students from the United States, the report found that China is now the fifth-most-popular destination.
In the 2006-7 academic year, the latest for which figures are available, 11,064 Americans studied in China, a large jump from 1995-96, when only 1,396 Americans studied there.
After the summer Olympics, interest in China is still growing rapidly. This year, 218 students applied for money to study in China from Gilman International Scholarships offered by the State Department, compared with 114 applications for the 2006-7 academic year.
And applications to programs like the Inter-University Program for Chinese Language Studies, a consortium of 13 American universities, have skyrocketed.
“When I took over as executive director in 2000, we accepted about 97 percent of the students who applied, but now we can only take about one in three,” said Tom Gold, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who runs the program.
Many universities are hard-pressed to keep up with the interest in China. Syracuse, for example, usually has a limit of 60 students a semester in its Hong Kong program, but because of strong demand expanded to 65 for the spring semester.
At Syracuse, one China program was not enough: in 2006 it started a Beijing program, taught in English, in collaboration with Tsinghua University, which will have about 15 students this spring. SUNY Oswego, meanwhile, has gone from one small exchange program in Beijing to seven partner destinations throughout China, including Hangzhou and Shanghai — and two faculty-led short-term programs in China, one on business and the other on Chinese culture.
“These days, nobody questions why you take Chinese and go to China,” said Vanessa Folkerts, a junior at Princeton who began studying Chinese as a freshman, and has spent two summers in intensive language study in Beijing. “It has its obvious uses. I know a lot of people get interested because China’s a rising economic power, but for me, it was mainly a linguistic interest.”
There are now hundreds of study-abroad programs in China. While most include some language study, some focus on martial arts, herbal medicine, culture, history or business.
Over all, 241,791 Americans studied abroad in 2006-7, the report said, with sharp increases in the numbers going to Argentina, South Africa, Ecuador and India, and declining numbers going to Australia and Costa Rica.
Last year, the report said, 623,805 students from around the world studied in the United States, 61 percent of them from Asia. Business and management and engineering remain the most popular fields of study.
As in previous years, the University of Southern California had the most international students, 7,189, followed by New York University and Columbia.
In a separate report on graduate school enrollment, released last week, the Council of Graduate Schools found that total international graduate enrollment increased 3 percent this fall, after rising 7 percent last year. The number of new international graduate students rose 3 percent as well, less than the 4 percent growth last year, or the 12 percent in 2006.
The number of new graduate students from India declined this year, after an 8 percent increase last year, the report found, but Chinese enrollment stayed strong, with first-year enrollments up 14 percent.
By TAMAR LEWIN
Record numbers of American students are studying abroad, with especially strong growth in educational exchanges with China, the annual report by the Institute on International Education found.
The number of Americans studying in China increased by 25 percent, and the number of Chinese students studying at American universities increased by 20 percent last year, according to the report, “Open Doors 2008.”
“Interest in China is growing dramatically, and I think we’ll see even sharper increases in next year’s report,” said Allan E. Goodman, president of the institute. “People used to go to China to study the history and language, and many still do, but with China looming so large in all our futures, there’s been a real shift, and more students go for an understanding of what’s happening economically and politically.”
While the traditional study-abroad sites for Americans — Britain, Italy, Spain and France — still attract more students from the United States, the report found that China is now the fifth-most-popular destination.
In the 2006-7 academic year, the latest for which figures are available, 11,064 Americans studied in China, a large jump from 1995-96, when only 1,396 Americans studied there.
After the summer Olympics, interest in China is still growing rapidly. This year, 218 students applied for money to study in China from Gilman International Scholarships offered by the State Department, compared with 114 applications for the 2006-7 academic year.
And applications to programs like the Inter-University Program for Chinese Language Studies, a consortium of 13 American universities, have skyrocketed.
“When I took over as executive director in 2000, we accepted about 97 percent of the students who applied, but now we can only take about one in three,” said Tom Gold, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who runs the program.
Many universities are hard-pressed to keep up with the interest in China. Syracuse, for example, usually has a limit of 60 students a semester in its Hong Kong program, but because of strong demand expanded to 65 for the spring semester.
At Syracuse, one China program was not enough: in 2006 it started a Beijing program, taught in English, in collaboration with Tsinghua University, which will have about 15 students this spring. SUNY Oswego, meanwhile, has gone from one small exchange program in Beijing to seven partner destinations throughout China, including Hangzhou and Shanghai — and two faculty-led short-term programs in China, one on business and the other on Chinese culture.
“These days, nobody questions why you take Chinese and go to China,” said Vanessa Folkerts, a junior at Princeton who began studying Chinese as a freshman, and has spent two summers in intensive language study in Beijing. “It has its obvious uses. I know a lot of people get interested because China’s a rising economic power, but for me, it was mainly a linguistic interest.”
There are now hundreds of study-abroad programs in China. While most include some language study, some focus on martial arts, herbal medicine, culture, history or business.
Over all, 241,791 Americans studied abroad in 2006-7, the report said, with sharp increases in the numbers going to Argentina, South Africa, Ecuador and India, and declining numbers going to Australia and Costa Rica.
Last year, the report said, 623,805 students from around the world studied in the United States, 61 percent of them from Asia. Business and management and engineering remain the most popular fields of study.
As in previous years, the University of Southern California had the most international students, 7,189, followed by New York University and Columbia.
In a separate report on graduate school enrollment, released last week, the Council of Graduate Schools found that total international graduate enrollment increased 3 percent this fall, after rising 7 percent last year. The number of new international graduate students rose 3 percent as well, less than the 4 percent growth last year, or the 12 percent in 2006.
The number of new graduate students from India declined this year, after an 8 percent increase last year, the report found, but Chinese enrollment stayed strong, with first-year enrollments up 14 percent.
Friday, October 31, 2008
21世纪布雷顿会议 中国是否当年的美国/ A 21st-Century Bretton Woods
http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20081030/opn091840.asp?source=email
21世纪布雷顿会议 中国是否当年的美国
2008年10月30日08:37
Wall Street Journal
Sebastian Mallaby
1944年7月，当出席联合国货币和金融会议的44国代表入住华盛顿山饭店(Mount Washington Hotel)的时候，布雷顿森林实在是没什么可看的。坐落在新罕布什尔州的这家饭店被一片差不多有100万英亩的森林包围着，除了一些可口可乐自动售货机，就没什么可让代表们分神的了。
就在这处几乎与世隔绝的地方，168名政治家（和仅有的一位女政治家、来自Vassar学院的Mabel Newcomer）一起参与演出了这段在治理世界经济方面最着名的历史片断。这次会议为防范再次发生大萧条重塑了世界金融秩序，并创建了一家史无前例的国际银行来专注于战后重建与发展。
在最后的全体会议上，盛装的与会代表们全场起立向英国经济学家凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)鼓掌致意。他的思想渗透于为期三周的会议。凯恩斯爵士向富有远见的同僚们表示感谢，说他们完成了预言家或先知才能做到的事。
布雷顿森林会议此后便披上了一层神话色彩。对经济史爱好者来说，它堪比制宪会议上美国建国之父们的那次聚会。而对那些急切希望被世界铭记的政治家来说，它是一个让人无比艳羡的时刻。最近，在英国首相布朗(Gordon Brown)和法国总统萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)呼吁举行新的布雷顿森林会议后，布什总统表示同意。电视媒体风闻此事纷纷出动，在当年的华盛顿山饭店旁驻扎守候，这里已完成了一次耗资5,000万美元的装修改建工程。不过，布雷顿森林会议实际上已经不是第一次闹“复活”了。事实上，历史上已有很多先例。
1982年的拉丁美洲债务危机爆发后，美国财政部长里甘(Donald Regan)就提出重新召开布雷顿会议以稳定西半球货币。第二年，因法郎发生三次贬值，当时的法国总统密特朗(Francois Mitterrand)宣称，“现在真的到了该考虑新的布雷顿森林会议的时候了。除此之外，别无他法。”接下来的两年时间里，密特朗一直大肆鼓吹这一主张，直到1985年撒切尔夫人(Margaret Thatcher)批评他的建议是“不切合实际的胡言乱语”，他才算偃旗息鼓。
1997-98年的新兴市场危机之后，布雷顿森林怀旧病再次爆发──这次是在后撒切尔时代的英国。时任英国首相的布莱尔(Tony Blair)认为：我们不应惧怕极端、颠覆传统的思想。为了新千年，我们今天需要致力于建立新的布雷顿森林体系。应该说，布莱尔的新千年构想的具体内容很模糊。但没有哪个国家的首脑会鲁莽地指出这一点。
在国际社会围绕治理经济采取的重大举措中，或许只有马歇尔计划被提及的频率超过布雷顿森林会议，比如，为冷战结束后的东欧制定马歇尔计划、针对非洲的马歇尔计划、针对内陆城市的马歇尔计划等多个版本。的确，每一个想让华盛顿花大钱的人都会发现，拿马歇尔计划说事是再便当不过的做法了。
但布雷顿会议具有更丰富的内涵和更罕见的声望。它关乎重新建立国际秩序，而不仅是为一项有意义的事业而稳定货币。并且，马歇尔计划是美国着名的单边主义的范例，布雷顿森林会议则是国际多边合作的胜利。当时参加布雷顿会议的甚至包括洪都拉斯、利比里亚和菲律宾等国的代表（凯恩斯曾就此不屑地说到，那是一次“最恐怖的耍猴馆般”的集会），但不包括韩国和日本这两个当今世界经济强国。
布雷顿会议这两方面的成就即使是今年看来似乎仍有相当的吸引力，不过，这两方面也都有不切实际的成份。会议创建的一项固定汇率体系重新确立了经济秩序。其目标是防止货币竞相贬值的局面重演。竞相贬值的典型范例是“黄油战争”。1930年，通过将本币贬值，新西兰出口的黄油在海外市场享受到价格优势，其出口黄油的主要竞争对手丹麦于是在1931年也采取了将货币贬值的做法。之后，这两个国家你追我赶，一路贬值，幅度越来越大。
这种损人利己的做法加剧了最终拖垮了整个世界的贸易保护主义，而布雷顿森林会议对这个问题的解决之道可谓简洁明了。二战后，美元钉住黄金、其他货币钉住美元。不再有浮动汇率机制，也就不再有贬值大战。为支撑这一系统，布雷顿森林体系的缔造者们还创立了国际货币基金组织(IMF)，相对同门师兄世界银行(World Bank)而言，IMF在实现其缔造者目标的过程中发挥的作用要大得多。如果固定汇率机制令一个国家陷入收支失衡的危机，那么IMF会出手相救，使其货币避免贬值。
如今成立新货币体制的理念在很大程度上仍可以借鉴这种观点。重创全球金融市场的信贷泡沫部分源于现行货币制度的双轨状态：一些国家允许货币自由浮动，另一些国家把本币与美元松散地挂钩在一起。在过去差不多五年的时间里，制度上的不统一制造了上世纪30年代的一个翻版：作为让本币钉住美元的最大经济体，中国将人民币汇率保持于低位，致使亚洲其他出口国也纷纷压低汇价。正是在这新一轮汇率操纵大战中，这些钉住美元的国家敛集了巨额贸易顺差。他们的收益不断回流至国际金融体系中，令信贷泡沫持续膨胀，在破灭后酿成今天的灾难。
说服中国改变其货币政策会是新布雷顿森林会议一个值得追求的目标。不过汇改问题在此次会议的议事日程上排名靠后（布什政府提议会议于11月15日举行，并将其定性为“20国集团会议”，对欧洲方面所谓的第二次布雷顿森林会议的说法置之不理）。力主召开此次会议的英、法领导人要求在会上讨论金融监管问题，例如何如完善评级机构、加强银行业透明度等等。很多相关议题对跨国合作的要求都很低。
如果欧洲闭嘴不提要求中国放松钉住美元政策的话，那或许是因为他们预见到了自己要为这一要求所做出的让步。中国是不会为了国际金融体系而放弃其出口拉动型经济增长政策的，除非这样能令它在该体系中获得更大利益──这意味着在IMF获得大得多的发言权，同时相应削弱欧洲原本过大的影响力。抛开有关银行业透明度的胡言乱语，这才是这次会议需要达成的核心协议。自然欧洲人不会提出这样的建议。
以何种形式将中国纳入多边机制核心的问题取决于中美这两个大国。这和第一次布雷顿森林会议时倒颇为相像──在多边谈判的表象下其实就是两个大国之间的讨价还价。二战之后，英国这个骄傲但负债累累的帝国需要美国人的存款来稳定货币体系，它付出的代价就是让美国人在IMF的设计及构架问题上拥有最终决定权。三十年河东，三十年河西，如今的美国必须扮演当年英国的角色，而今天的中国则必须扮演当年美国的角色。
然而，这里还有一个意想不到的转折。上世纪40年代时，衰落一方奉行的是帝国式贸易政策，崛起一方倡导的则是开放的全球经济模式。当罗斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)对邱吉尔(Churchill)说，实现自由贸易是英国获得战后援助的代价时，罗斯福是在要求终结殖民地政策、建立平等的商业竞争舞台；邱吉尔回答到：总统先生，我想你是想废除大英帝国，但尽管如此，我们知道美国是英国唯一的希望。
而今，崛起的一方一直在通过低汇率推行重商主义政策。坐拥2万亿美元巨额外汇储备的中国政府有可能答应为西方金融机构提供资金帮助，但条件是在IMF里扮演更重要的角色。但中国人也有可能对此兴趣全无。全球货币体系的未来取决于中国是否有心充当罗斯福──或者它宁愿做现代版的邱吉尔。
（编者按：本文作者Sebastian Mallaby是美国外交关系委员会(Council On Foreign Relations)地缘经济研究中心(Center for Geoeconomic Studies)主任。目前他正在撰写有关对冲基金历史的文章。）
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A 21st-Century Bretton Woods
汉 大 中 小2008年10月30日08:37
There wasn't much to see in Bretton Woods in July 1944, when delegates from 44 countries checked into the sprawling Mount Washington Hotel for the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference. Almost a million acres of New Hampshire forest surrounded the site; there were free Coca-Cola dispensers, but few other distractions.
In this scene of rustic isolation, 168 statesmen (and one lone stateswoman, Mabel Newcomer of Vassar College) joined in history's most celebrated episode of economic statecraft, remaking the world's monetary order to fend off another Great Depression and creating an unprecedented multinational bank, to be focused on postwar reconstruction and development.
At the Final Plenary, a sea of black-tied delegates gave a standing ovation to British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose intellect had permeated the three weeks of talks. Lord Keynes paid tribute to his far-seeing colleagues, who had performed a task appropriate 'to the prophet and to the soothsayer.'
The Bretton Woods conference has acquired mythical status. To economic-history buffs, it's akin to the gathering of the founding fathers at the constitutional convention. To politicians anxious to make their marks upon the world, it's a moment to be richly envied. The recent calls from British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy for a new Bretton Woods conference, to which the Bush administration has acceded, have caused TV crews to descend upon the old hotel, which has undergone a $50 million facelift. But Bretton Woods revivalism is nothing new. Indeed, it's a long tradition.
After the onset of the Latin debt crisis in 1982, U.S. Treasury Secretary Donald Regan floated the idea of a new Bretton Woods to steady the hemisphere's currencies. The following year, reeling from three devaluations of the franc, French President Francois Mitterrand declared, 'The time has really come to think in terms of a new Bretton Woods. Outside this proposition, there will be no salvation.' Mitterrand persisted in this grandiloquence over the next two years. He finally quieted down in 1985, when Margaret Thatcher dismissed his proposal as 'generalized jabberwocky.'
In the wake of the emerging-market crises of 1997-98, Bretton Woods nostalgia broke out again -- this time in post-Thatcher Britain. 'We should not be afraid to think radically and fundamentally,' Tony Blair opined. 'We need to commit ourselves today to build a new Bretton Woods for the next millennium.' The precise content of Mr. Blair's millennial ambition was, shall we say, vague. But no fellow leader was rude enough to say so.
Among acts of international economic statesmanship, perhaps only the Marshall Plan has been invoked more frequently. There have been calls for a Marshall Plan for postcommunist eastern Europe, a Marshall Plan for Africa, a Marshall Plan for the inner cities. Indeed, anybody wanting Washington to splurge finds Marshall exceedingly convenient.
But Bretton Woods has a richer and more rarefied cachet. It was about reordering the international system, not just mobilizing money for an enlightened cause. And whereas the Marshall Plan was an example of the unilateralism for which the U.S. is known, the Bretton Woods conference was a triumph of multilateral coordination. It featured countries as diverse as Honduras, Liberia and the Philippines (Keynes spoke disdainfully of a 'most monstrous monkey-house'), though it did not include South Korea or Japan, important voices in today's economic summitry.
Both sides of the Bretton Woods achievement seem alluring today, yet both may be chimerical. The conference rebuilt the economic order by creating a system of fixed exchange rates. The aim was to prevent a return to the competitive devaluations best illustrated by the 'butter wars.' In 1930 New Zealand secured a cost advantage for its butter exports by devaluing its money; Denmark, its main butter rival, responded with its own devaluation in 1931; the two nations proceeded to chase each other down with progressively more drastic devaluations.
This beggar-thy-neighbor behavior added to the protectionism that brought the world to ruin, and the Bretton Woods answer was simple. In the postwar era, the dollar would be anchored to gold, and other currencies would be anchored to the dollar: No more fluctuating money, ergo no competitive devaluation. To undergird this system, the Bretton Woods architects created the International Monetary Fund, which was far more central to their ambitions than their other legacy, the World Bank. If a country's fixed exchange rate led it into a balance of payments crisis, the IMF would bail it out and so avert devaluation.
Today the idea of another monetary rebirth has much to recommend it. The credit bubble that has wreaked havoc on the world's financial markets has its origins in a two-headed monetary order: Some countries allow their currencies to float, while others peg loosely to the dollar. Over the past five years or so, this mixture created a variation on the 1930s: China, the largest dollar pegger, kept its currency cheap, driving rival exporters in Asia to hold their exchange rates down also. Thanks to this new version of competitive currency manipulation, the dollar-peggers racked up gargantuan trade surpluses. Their earnings were pumped back into the international financial system, inflating a credit bubble that now has popped disastrously.
Persuading China to change its currency policy would be a worthy goal for a new Bretton Woods conference. But currency reform is low on the agenda of the summit that the Bush administration plans to host on Nov. 15. (The administration styles this gathering a 'G-20 meeting,' ignoring the European talk of a Bretton Woods II.) The British and French leaders who pushed for the meeting want instead to talk about financial regulation -- how to fix rating agencies, how to boost transparency at banks and so on. But many of these tasks require minimal multilateral coordination.
If the Europeans shrink from demanding that China cease pegging to the dollar, it's perhaps because they anticipate the concession that would be asked of them. China isn't going to give up its export-led growth strategy for the sake of the international system unless it gets a bigger stake in that system -- meaning a much bigger voice within the International Monetary Fund and a corresponding reduction in Europe's exaggerated influence. When you strip out the blather about bank transparency and such, this is the core bargain that needs to be struck. Naturally, the Europeans aren't proposing it.
It will be up to the two great powers -- the U.S. and China -- to fashion the deal that brings China into the heart of the multilateral system. Here, too, is an echo of the first Bretton Woods, for underneath the camouflage of a multilateral process there was a bargain between two nations. Britain, the proud but indebted imperial power, needed American savings to underpin monetary stability in the postwar era; the quid pro quo was that the U.S. had the final say on the IMF's design and structure. Today the U.S. must play Britain's role, and China must play the American one.
There's a final twist, however. In the 1940s the declining power practiced imperial trade preferences; the rising power championed an open world economy. When Franklin Roosevelt told Winston Churchill that free trade would be the price of postwar assistance, he was demanding an end to the colonial order and the creation of a level playing field for commerce. 'Mr. President, I think you want to abolish the British empire,' Churchill protested. 'But in spite of that, we know you are our only hope.'
Today it is the rising power that pursues mercantilist policies via its exchange rate. China's leadership, which sits atop an astonishing $2 trillion in foreign-currency savings, could trade a promise to help recapitalize Western finance for an expanded role within the IMF. But China may simply not be interested. The future of the global monetary system depends on whether China aspires to play the role of Roosevelt -- or whether it prefers to be a modern Churchill.
Sebastian Mallaby
(Sebastian Mallaby directs the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is writing a history of hedge funds.)
21世纪布雷顿会议 中国是否当年的美国
2008年10月30日08:37
Wall Street Journal
Sebastian Mallaby
1944年7月，当出席联合国货币和金融会议的44国代表入住华盛顿山饭店(Mount Washington Hotel)的时候，布雷顿森林实在是没什么可看的。坐落在新罕布什尔州的这家饭店被一片差不多有100万英亩的森林包围着，除了一些可口可乐自动售货机，就没什么可让代表们分神的了。
就在这处几乎与世隔绝的地方，168名政治家（和仅有的一位女政治家、来自Vassar学院的Mabel Newcomer）一起参与演出了这段在治理世界经济方面最着名的历史片断。这次会议为防范再次发生大萧条重塑了世界金融秩序，并创建了一家史无前例的国际银行来专注于战后重建与发展。
在最后的全体会议上，盛装的与会代表们全场起立向英国经济学家凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)鼓掌致意。他的思想渗透于为期三周的会议。凯恩斯爵士向富有远见的同僚们表示感谢，说他们完成了预言家或先知才能做到的事。
布雷顿森林会议此后便披上了一层神话色彩。对经济史爱好者来说，它堪比制宪会议上美国建国之父们的那次聚会。而对那些急切希望被世界铭记的政治家来说，它是一个让人无比艳羡的时刻。最近，在英国首相布朗(Gordon Brown)和法国总统萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)呼吁举行新的布雷顿森林会议后，布什总统表示同意。电视媒体风闻此事纷纷出动，在当年的华盛顿山饭店旁驻扎守候，这里已完成了一次耗资5,000万美元的装修改建工程。不过，布雷顿森林会议实际上已经不是第一次闹“复活”了。事实上，历史上已有很多先例。
1982年的拉丁美洲债务危机爆发后，美国财政部长里甘(Donald Regan)就提出重新召开布雷顿会议以稳定西半球货币。第二年，因法郎发生三次贬值，当时的法国总统密特朗(Francois Mitterrand)宣称，“现在真的到了该考虑新的布雷顿森林会议的时候了。除此之外，别无他法。”接下来的两年时间里，密特朗一直大肆鼓吹这一主张，直到1985年撒切尔夫人(Margaret Thatcher)批评他的建议是“不切合实际的胡言乱语”，他才算偃旗息鼓。
1997-98年的新兴市场危机之后，布雷顿森林怀旧病再次爆发──这次是在后撒切尔时代的英国。时任英国首相的布莱尔(Tony Blair)认为：我们不应惧怕极端、颠覆传统的思想。为了新千年，我们今天需要致力于建立新的布雷顿森林体系。应该说，布莱尔的新千年构想的具体内容很模糊。但没有哪个国家的首脑会鲁莽地指出这一点。
在国际社会围绕治理经济采取的重大举措中，或许只有马歇尔计划被提及的频率超过布雷顿森林会议，比如，为冷战结束后的东欧制定马歇尔计划、针对非洲的马歇尔计划、针对内陆城市的马歇尔计划等多个版本。的确，每一个想让华盛顿花大钱的人都会发现，拿马歇尔计划说事是再便当不过的做法了。
但布雷顿会议具有更丰富的内涵和更罕见的声望。它关乎重新建立国际秩序，而不仅是为一项有意义的事业而稳定货币。并且，马歇尔计划是美国着名的单边主义的范例，布雷顿森林会议则是国际多边合作的胜利。当时参加布雷顿会议的甚至包括洪都拉斯、利比里亚和菲律宾等国的代表（凯恩斯曾就此不屑地说到，那是一次“最恐怖的耍猴馆般”的集会），但不包括韩国和日本这两个当今世界经济强国。
布雷顿会议这两方面的成就即使是今年看来似乎仍有相当的吸引力，不过，这两方面也都有不切实际的成份。会议创建的一项固定汇率体系重新确立了经济秩序。其目标是防止货币竞相贬值的局面重演。竞相贬值的典型范例是“黄油战争”。1930年，通过将本币贬值，新西兰出口的黄油在海外市场享受到价格优势，其出口黄油的主要竞争对手丹麦于是在1931年也采取了将货币贬值的做法。之后，这两个国家你追我赶，一路贬值，幅度越来越大。
这种损人利己的做法加剧了最终拖垮了整个世界的贸易保护主义，而布雷顿森林会议对这个问题的解决之道可谓简洁明了。二战后，美元钉住黄金、其他货币钉住美元。不再有浮动汇率机制，也就不再有贬值大战。为支撑这一系统，布雷顿森林体系的缔造者们还创立了国际货币基金组织(IMF)，相对同门师兄世界银行(World Bank)而言，IMF在实现其缔造者目标的过程中发挥的作用要大得多。如果固定汇率机制令一个国家陷入收支失衡的危机，那么IMF会出手相救，使其货币避免贬值。
如今成立新货币体制的理念在很大程度上仍可以借鉴这种观点。重创全球金融市场的信贷泡沫部分源于现行货币制度的双轨状态：一些国家允许货币自由浮动，另一些国家把本币与美元松散地挂钩在一起。在过去差不多五年的时间里，制度上的不统一制造了上世纪30年代的一个翻版：作为让本币钉住美元的最大经济体，中国将人民币汇率保持于低位，致使亚洲其他出口国也纷纷压低汇价。正是在这新一轮汇率操纵大战中，这些钉住美元的国家敛集了巨额贸易顺差。他们的收益不断回流至国际金融体系中，令信贷泡沫持续膨胀，在破灭后酿成今天的灾难。
说服中国改变其货币政策会是新布雷顿森林会议一个值得追求的目标。不过汇改问题在此次会议的议事日程上排名靠后（布什政府提议会议于11月15日举行，并将其定性为“20国集团会议”，对欧洲方面所谓的第二次布雷顿森林会议的说法置之不理）。力主召开此次会议的英、法领导人要求在会上讨论金融监管问题，例如何如完善评级机构、加强银行业透明度等等。很多相关议题对跨国合作的要求都很低。
如果欧洲闭嘴不提要求中国放松钉住美元政策的话，那或许是因为他们预见到了自己要为这一要求所做出的让步。中国是不会为了国际金融体系而放弃其出口拉动型经济增长政策的，除非这样能令它在该体系中获得更大利益──这意味着在IMF获得大得多的发言权，同时相应削弱欧洲原本过大的影响力。抛开有关银行业透明度的胡言乱语，这才是这次会议需要达成的核心协议。自然欧洲人不会提出这样的建议。
以何种形式将中国纳入多边机制核心的问题取决于中美这两个大国。这和第一次布雷顿森林会议时倒颇为相像──在多边谈判的表象下其实就是两个大国之间的讨价还价。二战之后，英国这个骄傲但负债累累的帝国需要美国人的存款来稳定货币体系，它付出的代价就是让美国人在IMF的设计及构架问题上拥有最终决定权。三十年河东，三十年河西，如今的美国必须扮演当年英国的角色，而今天的中国则必须扮演当年美国的角色。
然而，这里还有一个意想不到的转折。上世纪40年代时，衰落一方奉行的是帝国式贸易政策，崛起一方倡导的则是开放的全球经济模式。当罗斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)对邱吉尔(Churchill)说，实现自由贸易是英国获得战后援助的代价时，罗斯福是在要求终结殖民地政策、建立平等的商业竞争舞台；邱吉尔回答到：总统先生，我想你是想废除大英帝国，但尽管如此，我们知道美国是英国唯一的希望。
而今，崛起的一方一直在通过低汇率推行重商主义政策。坐拥2万亿美元巨额外汇储备的中国政府有可能答应为西方金融机构提供资金帮助，但条件是在IMF里扮演更重要的角色。但中国人也有可能对此兴趣全无。全球货币体系的未来取决于中国是否有心充当罗斯福──或者它宁愿做现代版的邱吉尔。
（编者按：本文作者Sebastian Mallaby是美国外交关系委员会(Council On Foreign Relations)地缘经济研究中心(Center for Geoeconomic Studies)主任。目前他正在撰写有关对冲基金历史的文章。）
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A 21st-Century Bretton Woods
汉 大 中 小2008年10月30日08:37
There wasn't much to see in Bretton Woods in July 1944, when delegates from 44 countries checked into the sprawling Mount Washington Hotel for the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference. Almost a million acres of New Hampshire forest surrounded the site; there were free Coca-Cola dispensers, but few other distractions.
In this scene of rustic isolation, 168 statesmen (and one lone stateswoman, Mabel Newcomer of Vassar College) joined in history's most celebrated episode of economic statecraft, remaking the world's monetary order to fend off another Great Depression and creating an unprecedented multinational bank, to be focused on postwar reconstruction and development.
At the Final Plenary, a sea of black-tied delegates gave a standing ovation to British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose intellect had permeated the three weeks of talks. Lord Keynes paid tribute to his far-seeing colleagues, who had performed a task appropriate 'to the prophet and to the soothsayer.'
The Bretton Woods conference has acquired mythical status. To economic-history buffs, it's akin to the gathering of the founding fathers at the constitutional convention. To politicians anxious to make their marks upon the world, it's a moment to be richly envied. The recent calls from British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy for a new Bretton Woods conference, to which the Bush administration has acceded, have caused TV crews to descend upon the old hotel, which has undergone a $50 million facelift. But Bretton Woods revivalism is nothing new. Indeed, it's a long tradition.
After the onset of the Latin debt crisis in 1982, U.S. Treasury Secretary Donald Regan floated the idea of a new Bretton Woods to steady the hemisphere's currencies. The following year, reeling from three devaluations of the franc, French President Francois Mitterrand declared, 'The time has really come to think in terms of a new Bretton Woods. Outside this proposition, there will be no salvation.' Mitterrand persisted in this grandiloquence over the next two years. He finally quieted down in 1985, when Margaret Thatcher dismissed his proposal as 'generalized jabberwocky.'
In the wake of the emerging-market crises of 1997-98, Bretton Woods nostalgia broke out again -- this time in post-Thatcher Britain. 'We should not be afraid to think radically and fundamentally,' Tony Blair opined. 'We need to commit ourselves today to build a new Bretton Woods for the next millennium.' The precise content of Mr. Blair's millennial ambition was, shall we say, vague. But no fellow leader was rude enough to say so.
Among acts of international economic statesmanship, perhaps only the Marshall Plan has been invoked more frequently. There have been calls for a Marshall Plan for postcommunist eastern Europe, a Marshall Plan for Africa, a Marshall Plan for the inner cities. Indeed, anybody wanting Washington to splurge finds Marshall exceedingly convenient.
But Bretton Woods has a richer and more rarefied cachet. It was about reordering the international system, not just mobilizing money for an enlightened cause. And whereas the Marshall Plan was an example of the unilateralism for which the U.S. is known, the Bretton Woods conference was a triumph of multilateral coordination. It featured countries as diverse as Honduras, Liberia and the Philippines (Keynes spoke disdainfully of a 'most monstrous monkey-house'), though it did not include South Korea or Japan, important voices in today's economic summitry.
Both sides of the Bretton Woods achievement seem alluring today, yet both may be chimerical. The conference rebuilt the economic order by creating a system of fixed exchange rates. The aim was to prevent a return to the competitive devaluations best illustrated by the 'butter wars.' In 1930 New Zealand secured a cost advantage for its butter exports by devaluing its money; Denmark, its main butter rival, responded with its own devaluation in 1931; the two nations proceeded to chase each other down with progressively more drastic devaluations.
This beggar-thy-neighbor behavior added to the protectionism that brought the world to ruin, and the Bretton Woods answer was simple. In the postwar era, the dollar would be anchored to gold, and other currencies would be anchored to the dollar: No more fluctuating money, ergo no competitive devaluation. To undergird this system, the Bretton Woods architects created the International Monetary Fund, which was far more central to their ambitions than their other legacy, the World Bank. If a country's fixed exchange rate led it into a balance of payments crisis, the IMF would bail it out and so avert devaluation.
Today the idea of another monetary rebirth has much to recommend it. The credit bubble that has wreaked havoc on the world's financial markets has its origins in a two-headed monetary order: Some countries allow their currencies to float, while others peg loosely to the dollar. Over the past five years or so, this mixture created a variation on the 1930s: China, the largest dollar pegger, kept its currency cheap, driving rival exporters in Asia to hold their exchange rates down also. Thanks to this new version of competitive currency manipulation, the dollar-peggers racked up gargantuan trade surpluses. Their earnings were pumped back into the international financial system, inflating a credit bubble that now has popped disastrously.
Persuading China to change its currency policy would be a worthy goal for a new Bretton Woods conference. But currency reform is low on the agenda of the summit that the Bush administration plans to host on Nov. 15. (The administration styles this gathering a 'G-20 meeting,' ignoring the European talk of a Bretton Woods II.) The British and French leaders who pushed for the meeting want instead to talk about financial regulation -- how to fix rating agencies, how to boost transparency at banks and so on. But many of these tasks require minimal multilateral coordination.
If the Europeans shrink from demanding that China cease pegging to the dollar, it's perhaps because they anticipate the concession that would be asked of them. China isn't going to give up its export-led growth strategy for the sake of the international system unless it gets a bigger stake in that system -- meaning a much bigger voice within the International Monetary Fund and a corresponding reduction in Europe's exaggerated influence. When you strip out the blather about bank transparency and such, this is the core bargain that needs to be struck. Naturally, the Europeans aren't proposing it.
It will be up to the two great powers -- the U.S. and China -- to fashion the deal that brings China into the heart of the multilateral system. Here, too, is an echo of the first Bretton Woods, for underneath the camouflage of a multilateral process there was a bargain between two nations. Britain, the proud but indebted imperial power, needed American savings to underpin monetary stability in the postwar era; the quid pro quo was that the U.S. had the final say on the IMF's design and structure. Today the U.S. must play Britain's role, and China must play the American one.
There's a final twist, however. In the 1940s the declining power practiced imperial trade preferences; the rising power championed an open world economy. When Franklin Roosevelt told Winston Churchill that free trade would be the price of postwar assistance, he was demanding an end to the colonial order and the creation of a level playing field for commerce. 'Mr. President, I think you want to abolish the British empire,' Churchill protested. 'But in spite of that, we know you are our only hope.'
Today it is the rising power that pursues mercantilist policies via its exchange rate. China's leadership, which sits atop an astonishing $2 trillion in foreign-currency savings, could trade a promise to help recapitalize Western finance for an expanded role within the IMF. But China may simply not be interested. The future of the global monetary system depends on whether China aspires to play the role of Roosevelt -- or whether it prefers to be a modern Churchill.
Sebastian Mallaby
(Sebastian Mallaby directs the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is writing a history of hedge funds.)
why it's tricky for developing countries to rely on raw materials to grow (III)
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Fortis/VM Group predict solar energy will boost silver demand
The Fortis/VM Group’s Silver Book says silver demand in solar energy is expected to almost triple by 2012. The solar industry is expected to be a major consumer of silver in ten years.
Author: Tessa Kruger
Posted: Wednesday , 08 Oct 2008
JOHANNESBURG -
The solar energy sector is expected to become a robust driver of the silver market in future as silver demand in solar energy is forecast to increase to about 1,270t by 2012.
The Fortis/VM Group's latest Silver Book says silver demand from the solar panel sector was only 432t in 2007 based on the assumptions of maximum silver loadings per installed wattage of 0.12g/W, 4GW production (2007) and a 10% market share of non-silver containing thin film PV units.
However, future projects appeared very promising for silver demand in solar energy and therefore silver demand in the solar sector was forecast to increase to almost 1,270tby 2012 at 22GW of production. This forecast was based on the assumption of an annual 5% decrease in silver loadings per watt as efficiencies improve and market share of thin film technology rising to 25%.
The Silver Book said its conservative estimate for photovoltaic (PV) growth to 2012 was 13GW, which brought its estimate of silver demand for that year down to 1,111t. But the most aggressive industry forecast was 52GW, which would imply 4,446t of silver.
Photovoltaic (PV) or solar cells are used to convert sunlight to electricity. PV cells are semiconductor devices that produce electricity as long as light shines on them.
"Like any high and low forecast, the truth would probably lie somewhere in between, but we can say that this industry is going to represent a robust and growing item in the future silver supply/demand balance," the VM Group said.
The group based its forecast on a number of assumptions and factors, such as bringing down higher PV costs per watt relative to the traditional energy sector, governments offering incentives to embrace the environmentally clean source of energy and the continued market dominance of silver-loaded crystalline silicon cells. Crystalline silicon cells currently account for 90% of the PV market.
"While we expect reduced silver loadings, due to improved efficiencies and the ramp up in market share of thin film modules, we also believe that within the next ten years the solar energy sector will be a major consumer of silver, over and above previous forecasts," said the book.
The Silver Book added it expected the recycling of PV systems to be insignificant over the next 10-15 years, due to the relative youth of the industry, the long life of PV units and the huge cost and logistical effort needed for collection of these panels.
"Of greater threat to the industry would be a collapse in fossil fuel prices and/or the appearance of superior non-silver conducting media, which would write silver's future out of this sector." The book noted that so far there was no sign of this happening but the solar energy sector was a fast-moving industry in a rapidly changing world.
The recent growth in the PV sector should be sustained on the back of high oil and gas prices and the knock-on effect on retail energy prices.
The Silver Book said the era of cheap electricity generated from fossil fuels was over; even though the world probably had at least 500 years of coal reserves, the climate cost of burning carbon was becoming "unsupportable". It said alternative energy sources will increasingly become a way of life.
Fortis/VM Group predict solar energy will boost silver demand
The Fortis/VM Group’s Silver Book says silver demand in solar energy is expected to almost triple by 2012. The solar industry is expected to be a major consumer of silver in ten years.
Author: Tessa Kruger
Posted: Wednesday , 08 Oct 2008
JOHANNESBURG -
The solar energy sector is expected to become a robust driver of the silver market in future as silver demand in solar energy is forecast to increase to about 1,270t by 2012.
The Fortis/VM Group's latest Silver Book says silver demand from the solar panel sector was only 432t in 2007 based on the assumptions of maximum silver loadings per installed wattage of 0.12g/W, 4GW production (2007) and a 10% market share of non-silver containing thin film PV units.
However, future projects appeared very promising for silver demand in solar energy and therefore silver demand in the solar sector was forecast to increase to almost 1,270tby 2012 at 22GW of production. This forecast was based on the assumption of an annual 5% decrease in silver loadings per watt as efficiencies improve and market share of thin film technology rising to 25%.
The Silver Book said its conservative estimate for photovoltaic (PV) growth to 2012 was 13GW, which brought its estimate of silver demand for that year down to 1,111t. But the most aggressive industry forecast was 52GW, which would imply 4,446t of silver.
Photovoltaic (PV) or solar cells are used to convert sunlight to electricity. PV cells are semiconductor devices that produce electricity as long as light shines on them.
"Like any high and low forecast, the truth would probably lie somewhere in between, but we can say that this industry is going to represent a robust and growing item in the future silver supply/demand balance," the VM Group said.
The group based its forecast on a number of assumptions and factors, such as bringing down higher PV costs per watt relative to the traditional energy sector, governments offering incentives to embrace the environmentally clean source of energy and the continued market dominance of silver-loaded crystalline silicon cells. Crystalline silicon cells currently account for 90% of the PV market.
"While we expect reduced silver loadings, due to improved efficiencies and the ramp up in market share of thin film modules, we also believe that within the next ten years the solar energy sector will be a major consumer of silver, over and above previous forecasts," said the book.
The Silver Book added it expected the recycling of PV systems to be insignificant over the next 10-15 years, due to the relative youth of the industry, the long life of PV units and the huge cost and logistical effort needed for collection of these panels.
"Of greater threat to the industry would be a collapse in fossil fuel prices and/or the appearance of superior non-silver conducting media, which would write silver's future out of this sector." The book noted that so far there was no sign of this happening but the solar energy sector was a fast-moving industry in a rapidly changing world.
The recent growth in the PV sector should be sustained on the back of high oil and gas prices and the knock-on effect on retail energy prices.
The Silver Book said the era of cheap electricity generated from fossil fuels was over; even though the world probably had at least 500 years of coal reserves, the climate cost of burning carbon was becoming "unsupportable". It said alternative energy sources will increasingly become a way of life.
why it's tricky for developing countries to rely on raw materials to grow (II)
MORE ENERGY CAPACITY NEEDED
4.2m tonnes of nickel reserves could transform Burundi's economy
Officials say nickel resources could transform Burundi's economy, which now relies mostly on coffee and tea exports.
Author: Patrick Nduwimana
Posted: Wednesday , 08 Oct 2008
BUJUMBURA (REUTERS) -
Burundi said on Wednesday its reserves of nickel were about 4.2 million tonnes, which should allow for exploitation over half a century.
But Mines and Energy Minister Samuel Ndayiragije told Reuters in an interview that mining of the metal could not start for five years due to insufficient energy.
After that, "research studies showed that our nickel could be exploited in a period of 50 years", he said.
The minister said the central African nation needed between $300 and $400 million to build a 60 megawatt-capacity hydroelectric dam to power nickel exploitation. That is nearly double national capacity of 32.5 MW.
The government has already presented the energy project to World Bank and African Development Bank.
"Nickel research and exploitation is not an easy task and it takes a long time. This is the reason why we need support from donors," the minister said.
Burundi has three nickel deposits in the southeast and central parts of the country. The authorities have so far issued six research permits to multinational miners.
Officials say nickel resources could transform Burundi's economy, which now relies mostly on coffee and tea exports. (Editing by Christopher Johnson)
4.2m tonnes of nickel reserves could transform Burundi's economy
Officials say nickel resources could transform Burundi's economy, which now relies mostly on coffee and tea exports.
Author: Patrick Nduwimana
Posted: Wednesday , 08 Oct 2008
BUJUMBURA (REUTERS) -
Burundi said on Wednesday its reserves of nickel were about 4.2 million tonnes, which should allow for exploitation over half a century.
But Mines and Energy Minister Samuel Ndayiragije told Reuters in an interview that mining of the metal could not start for five years due to insufficient energy.
After that, "research studies showed that our nickel could be exploited in a period of 50 years", he said.
The minister said the central African nation needed between $300 and $400 million to build a 60 megawatt-capacity hydroelectric dam to power nickel exploitation. That is nearly double national capacity of 32.5 MW.
The government has already presented the energy project to World Bank and African Development Bank.
"Nickel research and exploitation is not an easy task and it takes a long time. This is the reason why we need support from donors," the minister said.
Burundi has three nickel deposits in the southeast and central parts of the country. The authorities have so far issued six research permits to multinational miners.
Officials say nickel resources could transform Burundi's economy, which now relies mostly on coffee and tea exports. (Editing by Christopher Johnson)
why it's tricky for developing countries to rely on raw materials to grow (I)
Automakers turn to 'nanotechnology' as precious metal prices soar
The world’s automotive manufacturers have gone well beyond the basic concept of PGM substitution, and are now looking to nanotechnology to reduce the use of precious metals.
Author: Chang-Ran Kim, Asia Autos Correspondent
Posted: Thursday , 26 Jun 2008
TOKYO (REUTERS) -
Reeling from a relentless rise in precious metal prices, Japanese automakers are banking on new know-how, including nanotechnology, to clean up car exhausts in place of platinum and related metals.
Automakers use platinum, palladium and rhodium in varying amounts in autocatalysts to filter out carbon monoxide and particulate emissions.
While only a few grams go into every car -- compared with more than 2,000 pounds (900kg) of steel -- the high prices result in a cost of roughly $200 per vehicle on average for the platinum group metals (PGMs).
With about 55 million cars sold globally last year, that equates to roughly $10 billion of PGMs, and demand is growing.
Driven by tighter emissions laws, auto industry use of platinum rose more than 8 percent last year and now accounts for some 60 percent of total demand for the metal, which is also used for jewellery.
Platinum prices have doubled in the past two years, jumping by 50 percent from the start of 2008 alone to a record $2,290 an ounce in early March, due mainly to supply shortages from major producer South Africa.
Other precious metals such as palladium and rhodium have also shot up in value.
Japanese automakers have tried to minimise the impact of soaring prices by substituting cheaper palladium for platinum and rhodium and locking in long-term supply contracts.
But with limited financial hedging available to counter rising prices, most work is going into developing methods to use less or none of the expensive materials.
NANOTECHNOLOGY TO THE RESCUE
The fruits of those efforts are due to appear soon.
Nissan Motor Co, Japan's No.3 automaker, has developed a catalyst for gasoline cars that halves the use of precious metals components by employing nanotechnology.
Using particles as small as a few billionths of a metre, nanotechnology prevents fine metal particles from clustering in catalysts, enabling engineers to use less precious metals to clean exhaust emissions.
Nissan, which plans to share the technology with European partner Renault, will start employing it early next year on all new gasoline models.
Joji Tagawa, corporate vice president in charge of the automaker's treasury department, said Nissan held back from applying a forward rate contract for platinum this year.
"The reason we were a bit hesitant is that we knew that this technological breakthrough would lead to a significant reduction of platinum usage," he told Reuters.
Mazda Motor Corp, owned one-third by Ford Motor Co, has achieved a similar feat using single-nanotechnology, which will allow it to slash platinum and palladium use by up to 90 percent. Mazda has not said when the technology would be put to use.
Honda Motor Co Chief Executive Takeo Fukui said technology, though not yet perfect, also existed to replace precious metals altogether. Honda used a class of minerals called perovskites in an earlier version of the Step Wgn, a minivan sold mainly in Japan, but ditched it due to problems with durability.
"It was infinitely cheaper than precious metals, but difficult from a durability standpoint," he said. "But we're engaging in all kinds of trials to test technology like that."
Other promising alternatives are on the horizon.
Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co told Reuters last month it aimed to start commercial production in three years' time of a new catalyst that applies silver rather than platinum in diesel vehicles, at almost $2,000 an ounce cheaper.
Further ahead, Daihatsu Motor Co, Toyota's minivehicle unit, could develop a platinum-free fuel-cell vehicle after it said last year it had found a way to use less costly metals such as cobalt or nickel. Hydrogen fuel-cell cars in development today use an estimated 100 grams of platinum, costing thousands of dollars, to separate protons from electrons in hydrogen atoms.
TUG-OF-WAR
The spread of hybrid cars could also reduce usage of PGMs.
Takeshi Uchiyamada, an executive vice president at Toyota and father of the Prius hybrid, said such gasoline-electric cars use less platinum than vehicles that run solely on gasoline because they give off fewer emissions to begin with. Harmful exhaust gases are emitted most during acceleration in gasoline cars, while hybrids use or get assistance from an electric motor during the process.
Toyota and Honda both expect about a tenth of their vehicles to be hybridised by the mid-2010s.
Still, Uchiyamada noted the reduction of platinum use in hybrids was somewhat offset by the use of neodymium, a rare-earth magnet mainly sourced in China, in the motor for the hybrid system, again raising the need to find a comprehensive and drastic solution to the use of scarce materials.
"The issue of rare metals and rare earth materials is going to be a huge concern for the manufacturing sector," he told Reuters in a recent interview.
"When you consider (the) growth in demand, the solution in the end-game has to be to go precious-metals-free." (Editing by Lincoln Feast)
The world’s automotive manufacturers have gone well beyond the basic concept of PGM substitution, and are now looking to nanotechnology to reduce the use of precious metals.
Author: Chang-Ran Kim, Asia Autos Correspondent
Posted: Thursday , 26 Jun 2008
TOKYO (REUTERS) -
Reeling from a relentless rise in precious metal prices, Japanese automakers are banking on new know-how, including nanotechnology, to clean up car exhausts in place of platinum and related metals.
Automakers use platinum, palladium and rhodium in varying amounts in autocatalysts to filter out carbon monoxide and particulate emissions.
While only a few grams go into every car -- compared with more than 2,000 pounds (900kg) of steel -- the high prices result in a cost of roughly $200 per vehicle on average for the platinum group metals (PGMs).
With about 55 million cars sold globally last year, that equates to roughly $10 billion of PGMs, and demand is growing.
Driven by tighter emissions laws, auto industry use of platinum rose more than 8 percent last year and now accounts for some 60 percent of total demand for the metal, which is also used for jewellery.
Platinum prices have doubled in the past two years, jumping by 50 percent from the start of 2008 alone to a record $2,290 an ounce in early March, due mainly to supply shortages from major producer South Africa.
Other precious metals such as palladium and rhodium have also shot up in value.
Japanese automakers have tried to minimise the impact of soaring prices by substituting cheaper palladium for platinum and rhodium and locking in long-term supply contracts.
But with limited financial hedging available to counter rising prices, most work is going into developing methods to use less or none of the expensive materials.
NANOTECHNOLOGY TO THE RESCUE
The fruits of those efforts are due to appear soon.
Nissan Motor Co, Japan's No.3 automaker, has developed a catalyst for gasoline cars that halves the use of precious metals components by employing nanotechnology.
Using particles as small as a few billionths of a metre, nanotechnology prevents fine metal particles from clustering in catalysts, enabling engineers to use less precious metals to clean exhaust emissions.
Nissan, which plans to share the technology with European partner Renault, will start employing it early next year on all new gasoline models.
Joji Tagawa, corporate vice president in charge of the automaker's treasury department, said Nissan held back from applying a forward rate contract for platinum this year.
"The reason we were a bit hesitant is that we knew that this technological breakthrough would lead to a significant reduction of platinum usage," he told Reuters.
Mazda Motor Corp, owned one-third by Ford Motor Co, has achieved a similar feat using single-nanotechnology, which will allow it to slash platinum and palladium use by up to 90 percent. Mazda has not said when the technology would be put to use.
Honda Motor Co Chief Executive Takeo Fukui said technology, though not yet perfect, also existed to replace precious metals altogether. Honda used a class of minerals called perovskites in an earlier version of the Step Wgn, a minivan sold mainly in Japan, but ditched it due to problems with durability.
"It was infinitely cheaper than precious metals, but difficult from a durability standpoint," he said. "But we're engaging in all kinds of trials to test technology like that."
Other promising alternatives are on the horizon.
Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co told Reuters last month it aimed to start commercial production in three years' time of a new catalyst that applies silver rather than platinum in diesel vehicles, at almost $2,000 an ounce cheaper.
Further ahead, Daihatsu Motor Co, Toyota's minivehicle unit, could develop a platinum-free fuel-cell vehicle after it said last year it had found a way to use less costly metals such as cobalt or nickel. Hydrogen fuel-cell cars in development today use an estimated 100 grams of platinum, costing thousands of dollars, to separate protons from electrons in hydrogen atoms.
TUG-OF-WAR
The spread of hybrid cars could also reduce usage of PGMs.
Takeshi Uchiyamada, an executive vice president at Toyota and father of the Prius hybrid, said such gasoline-electric cars use less platinum than vehicles that run solely on gasoline because they give off fewer emissions to begin with. Harmful exhaust gases are emitted most during acceleration in gasoline cars, while hybrids use or get assistance from an electric motor during the process.
Toyota and Honda both expect about a tenth of their vehicles to be hybridised by the mid-2010s.
Still, Uchiyamada noted the reduction of platinum use in hybrids was somewhat offset by the use of neodymium, a rare-earth magnet mainly sourced in China, in the motor for the hybrid system, again raising the need to find a comprehensive and drastic solution to the use of scarce materials.
"The issue of rare metals and rare earth materials is going to be a huge concern for the manufacturing sector," he told Reuters in a recent interview.
"When you consider (the) growth in demand, the solution in the end-game has to be to go precious-metals-free." (Editing by Lincoln Feast)
A new home for the Nano
India's car industry
A new home for the Nano
Oct 9th 2008 DELHI
From The Economist print edition
Protesters force Tata Motors to abandon a car factory in West Bengal
AP
West Bengal’s first and last NanoEACH year India’s Bengalis celebrate the goddess Durga, offering prayers before dazzling religious tableaux called pandals. This year Santosh Mitra square in Kolkata (formerly Calcutta) hosted an unusual example: a yellow replica of the Nano, the small car touted by Tata Motors as the world’s cheapest. It stood in front of a forlorn factory (pictured), made of plywood, fibreglass and plaster, and girdled by a huge padlock and chain. Alas, the Nano will not be built in West Bengal. On October 3rd Ratan Tata, chairman of the Tata Group, said his firm would abandon its factory in the state, which has been pinned down for months in “political crossfire”.
The Nano is an icon of Indian ingenuity and entrepreneurialism. Selling for just 100,000 rupees ($2,100), it seeks to reach a new class of customers through frugal engineering. But India’s politicians also have a keen eye for a gap in the market. Mamata Banerjee, leader of the main opposition party in West Bengal, drummed up a campaign on behalf of farmers who opposed the project. Many had refused the compensation the state government offered when it hurriedly expropriated their land to make room for the Tata Motors plant. Whatever the justice of its cause, the campaign became shrill and intimidating. It has undone West Bengal’s efforts to court industrial investment, and may have done wider damage to India’s reputation. If the Tatas, one of India’s most venerable business houses, cannot build a factory without political grief, why should foreign investors take the risk?
Farming accounts for less than 18% of India’s output, but carries far greater political weight. The difficulty of acquiring land, which is often either treasured by farmers or hoarded by the state, has become a constraint on India’s growth. Industrialists are converting over 466,000 acres into business-friendly “special economic zones”. But not without fuss. In Maharashtra the government should soon release the results of a farmers’ referendum on a project outside Mumbai championed by Mukesh Ambani, head of Reliance Industries, India’s biggest company by market capitalisation. In Goa the government renounced all such zones amid popular concerns about the changing character of the state.
In fact, only the setbacks grab the headlines. India has enjoyed an astonishing boom in manufacturing investment, despite all these obstacles. The acrimony that dogged the Tatas in West Bengal did not stop at least four other states from rushing to offer alternative sites. The company chose a location in Gujarat, one of India’s most industrialised states, which instantly granted more land (1,100 acres) than was on offer in West Bengal. Not for long were the Tatas “orphans looking for a home”, as Mr Tata put it to the Times of India.
Gujarat’s chief minister, Narendra Modi, is an unapologetic Hindu nationalist who sits at the opposite end of the ideological spectrum from Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, the Marxist intellectual who governs West Bengal. And yet both chief ministers are equally dedicated to the cause of industrialisation.
The Nano’s exit may even give Ms Banerjee and her sympathisers pause for thought. For as long as the Tatas endured her rallies and blockades, she could have her cake and eat it. She could champion the cause of farmers without damaging the prospects of the thousands of Bengalis who hoped to gain employment as a result of the project. But the Tatas’ departure will force Ms Banerjee to count the cost of her political venture. The replica sitting in Santosh Mitra square is, sadly, the only Nano the Bengalis will now get to build.
A new home for the Nano
Oct 9th 2008 DELHI
From The Economist print edition
Protesters force Tata Motors to abandon a car factory in West Bengal
AP
West Bengal’s first and last NanoEACH year India’s Bengalis celebrate the goddess Durga, offering prayers before dazzling religious tableaux called pandals. This year Santosh Mitra square in Kolkata (formerly Calcutta) hosted an unusual example: a yellow replica of the Nano, the small car touted by Tata Motors as the world’s cheapest. It stood in front of a forlorn factory (pictured), made of plywood, fibreglass and plaster, and girdled by a huge padlock and chain. Alas, the Nano will not be built in West Bengal. On October 3rd Ratan Tata, chairman of the Tata Group, said his firm would abandon its factory in the state, which has been pinned down for months in “political crossfire”.
The Nano is an icon of Indian ingenuity and entrepreneurialism. Selling for just 100,000 rupees ($2,100), it seeks to reach a new class of customers through frugal engineering. But India’s politicians also have a keen eye for a gap in the market. Mamata Banerjee, leader of the main opposition party in West Bengal, drummed up a campaign on behalf of farmers who opposed the project. Many had refused the compensation the state government offered when it hurriedly expropriated their land to make room for the Tata Motors plant. Whatever the justice of its cause, the campaign became shrill and intimidating. It has undone West Bengal’s efforts to court industrial investment, and may have done wider damage to India’s reputation. If the Tatas, one of India’s most venerable business houses, cannot build a factory without political grief, why should foreign investors take the risk?
Farming accounts for less than 18% of India’s output, but carries far greater political weight. The difficulty of acquiring land, which is often either treasured by farmers or hoarded by the state, has become a constraint on India’s growth. Industrialists are converting over 466,000 acres into business-friendly “special economic zones”. But not without fuss. In Maharashtra the government should soon release the results of a farmers’ referendum on a project outside Mumbai championed by Mukesh Ambani, head of Reliance Industries, India’s biggest company by market capitalisation. In Goa the government renounced all such zones amid popular concerns about the changing character of the state.
In fact, only the setbacks grab the headlines. India has enjoyed an astonishing boom in manufacturing investment, despite all these obstacles. The acrimony that dogged the Tatas in West Bengal did not stop at least four other states from rushing to offer alternative sites. The company chose a location in Gujarat, one of India’s most industrialised states, which instantly granted more land (1,100 acres) than was on offer in West Bengal. Not for long were the Tatas “orphans looking for a home”, as Mr Tata put it to the Times of India.
Gujarat’s chief minister, Narendra Modi, is an unapologetic Hindu nationalist who sits at the opposite end of the ideological spectrum from Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, the Marxist intellectual who governs West Bengal. And yet both chief ministers are equally dedicated to the cause of industrialisation.
The Nano’s exit may even give Ms Banerjee and her sympathisers pause for thought. For as long as the Tatas endured her rallies and blockades, she could have her cake and eat it. She could champion the cause of farmers without damaging the prospects of the thousands of Bengalis who hoped to gain employment as a result of the project. But the Tatas’ departure will force Ms Banerjee to count the cost of her political venture. The replica sitting in Santosh Mitra square is, sadly, the only Nano the Bengalis will now get to build.
Book Review: Herbert Spencer and the Invention of Modern Life
Mark Francis, _Herbert Spencer and the Invention of Modern Life_.
Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2007. xiv + 434 pp. $45 (cloth),
ISBN: 978-0-8014-4590-3.
Reviewed for EH.NET by Sandra J. Peart, Jepson School of Leadership
Studies, University of Richmond.
This is a wonderful book, filled with detail, substance and purpose.
Mark Francis, professor of political science at the University of
Canterbury, rightly informs us that Spencer has been misinterpreted over
the years. Francis acknowledges that Spencer himself is partly
responsible for those misinterpretations, having been careless about how
his arguments might be used by others (p. 285). Consequently, the
biographer of Spencer faces “an intriguing task” (p. 330) -- how to
correct the misconceptions while preserving what is worth preserving in
the enormous amount of Spencer scholarship that followed upon Spencer’s
work.
Francis correctly re-orients our interpretation of Spencer on a number
of important fronts, emphasizing that Spencer was first and foremost a
philosopher as opposed to a biologist or psychologist. Though the
literature has stressed Spencer’s role in the development of
professional science, Francis emphasizes Spencer’s major contributions
to the philosophy of science (p. 233). Spencer was the “most consistent
evolutionary theorist among the founding fathers of modern social
science” (p. 78). But he “was not pursuing the same goals as Darwin,”
Francis writes, and so “It was therefore painless for him to admit that
he and Darwin had used evolution in different ways” (p. 189). Spencer
introduced evolutionary theory “to prop up the intuitionist part of his
common-sense philosophy” (p. 175).
In this account Spencer’s defense of liberalism rested neither on
libertarianism nor socialism. Instead it is a unique doctrine
intertwined with ethics: “His doctrine was an ethical and humane
approach to future social development, which prohibited dominance and
aggression towards dependent persons or groups, even if it could be
demonstrated that the long-term result would be beneficial” (p. 337).
Economists will find Spencer’s ideas on progress most interesting.
Throughout his life he insisted that the goal of human progress was an
altruistic one. But his views on progress changed over time; in
Francis’ telling, “from the late 1850’s he began to cast aside his
philistine faith in the dreams of progress through hard work and the
renunciation of pleasure” (p. 48). Was progress a biological notion of
improvement for Spencer? The common misconception has Spencer defending
“progress” where some perish in the name of overall human flourishing.
Francis rightly presents a contrary argument that reconciles
evolutionary change with flourishing for all. His solution to this
quandary, Francis argues, “was to say that with progress drawing them
forwards, future human beings would remain part of the natural world
(and thus experience evolutionary change); yet, at the same time, they
would be above it and thus able to avoid its perils. His vision had
humanity ultimately evolving to the point where individuals avoided the
cruelty and destruction that the demands of hunger and reproduction had
imposed on other organisms” (p. 243).
Spencer’s writings on politics fit with some difficulty into his
philosophical system. Francis opposes the commonly-held view that
Spencer’s liberalism was fundamentally concerned with limiting social or
political control over the individual. In Francis’ view, Spencer was no
classical liberal (p. 250). More than this, he has been ill-served by
ethicists who take his later ideas as conservative or individualistic.
Instead, Francis emphasizes the originality of Spencer’s evolutionary
theory in which progress was determined by the planning of individuals
who increasingly moved into correspondence with each other (pp. 291-92). In this telling, justice rightly limits the sphere of the individual
for Spencer (p. 251).
Francis’ re-orientation of our thinking on Spencer raises the question
of whether we have correctly characterized classical liberalism at all. Our misconceptions about Spencer may simply be a severe example of our
misconception of classical political economists one and all.[1]
Political economists from Adam Smith through John Stuart Mill held that
individuals were connected to each other through sympathy. More than
this, they held that people are morally constrained by these
connections, in addition to the constraints imposed by the legal system.
Indeed, Smith characterized humans as unique among animals because they
connect with others through trade and discussion. From this
characterization of humans as sympathetically connected, he developed
his system of natural liberty in which individuals come to do the right
thing, to care for others as a result of the imaginative process of
changing position with each other. Sympathy was a staple of eighteenth
and nineteenth century theory of mind as developed by Scottish
philosophers, including Smith’s colleague, Dugald Stewart, and two
generations of Stewart’s students, James and John Stuart Mill. These
philosophers foresaw an extension of the range of sympathy to all
mankind (Mill, 1829, 2:278) and, as such, they became identified with
philanthropy.
So, too, Spencer held that as sympathy flourishes “natural selection” is
superseded by another, human law of social development (Peart and Levy,
2005, 220-22). For Spencer, the extension of sympathy to encompass
universal concern for others is evidence of a fully developed race.
Humans become civilized through the development of language and
sympathy. Spencer explicitly rejected social Darwinism entailing racial
development through misery induced by competition for resources and
argued to the contrary that individuals who have developed sympathetic
tendencies toward one another will come to reduce misery by reducing
births (Peart and Levy, 2005, 222).
But as we know, Spencer has been interpreted quite differently. As
Francis points out, when W. G. Sumner taught sociology using Spencer’s
_The Study of Sociology_, he omitted an analysis of Spencer’s final
chapter, on altruism (p. 189). And the device of sympathy was
successfully attacked by social commentators, such as the co-founder of
eugenics, W. R. Greg, who wished to see natural selection in humans
unimpeded by concern for others, the “unfit” (Peart and Levy 2005,
63-64). With the demise of sympathy as an analytical device late in the
century, the phrase “survival of the fittest” came to mean fittest
_absent concern_ for others. As Francis has demonstrated so
convincingly, this was a re-orienting of our interpretation of Spencer.
When sympathy disappeared from the toolkit of economics, we also began
to misremember classical political economy.
Note:
1. This of course is not to say that political economists spoke with one
and the same voice throughout the nineteenth century. It is, instead,
meant to suggest that from Smith through J. S. Mill, the dimension of
sympathy is important in their analyses.
References:
Mill, James. [1829] 1869. _Analysis of the Phenomena of the Human
Mind_ (edited by John Stuart Mill). London: Longmans, Green, Reader and
Dyer.
Peart, Sandra J. and David M. Levy. 2005. _The “Vanity of the
Philosopher”: From Equality to Hierarchy in Post-Classical Economics_.
Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Sandra J. Peart is dean of the Jepson School of Leadership Studies at
the University of Richmond. Previously, she was on the economics faculty
at the College of William and Mary, and Baldwin-Wallace College. She is
the past President of the History of Economics Society and, with David
Levy, co-directs the Summer Institute for the History of Economic
Thought. With David Levy, Peart has written on classical political
economy and the rise of eugenics in the nineteenth century. Her most
recent book, edited with David Levy, is _The Street Porter and the
Philosopher: Conversations on Analytical Egalitarianism_.
Copyright (c) 2008 by EH.Net. All rights reserved. This work may be
copied for non-profit educational uses if proper credit is given to the
author and the list. For other permission, please contact the EH.Net
Administrator (administrator@eh.net; Telephone: 513-529-2229). Published
by EH.Net (October 2008). All EH.Net reviews are archived at
http://www.eh.net/BookReview.
Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2007. xiv + 434 pp. $45 (cloth),
ISBN: 978-0-8014-4590-3.
Reviewed for EH.NET by Sandra J. Peart, Jepson School of Leadership
Studies, University of Richmond.
This is a wonderful book, filled with detail, substance and purpose.
Mark Francis, professor of political science at the University of
Canterbury, rightly informs us that Spencer has been misinterpreted over
the years. Francis acknowledges that Spencer himself is partly
responsible for those misinterpretations, having been careless about how
his arguments might be used by others (p. 285). Consequently, the
biographer of Spencer faces “an intriguing task” (p. 330) -- how to
correct the misconceptions while preserving what is worth preserving in
the enormous amount of Spencer scholarship that followed upon Spencer’s
work.
Francis correctly re-orients our interpretation of Spencer on a number
of important fronts, emphasizing that Spencer was first and foremost a
philosopher as opposed to a biologist or psychologist. Though the
literature has stressed Spencer’s role in the development of
professional science, Francis emphasizes Spencer’s major contributions
to the philosophy of science (p. 233). Spencer was the “most consistent
evolutionary theorist among the founding fathers of modern social
science” (p. 78). But he “was not pursuing the same goals as Darwin,”
Francis writes, and so “It was therefore painless for him to admit that
he and Darwin had used evolution in different ways” (p. 189). Spencer
introduced evolutionary theory “to prop up the intuitionist part of his
common-sense philosophy” (p. 175).
In this account Spencer’s defense of liberalism rested neither on
libertarianism nor socialism. Instead it is a unique doctrine
intertwined with ethics: “His doctrine was an ethical and humane
approach to future social development, which prohibited dominance and
aggression towards dependent persons or groups, even if it could be
demonstrated that the long-term result would be beneficial” (p. 337).
Economists will find Spencer’s ideas on progress most interesting.
Throughout his life he insisted that the goal of human progress was an
altruistic one. But his views on progress changed over time; in
Francis’ telling, “from the late 1850’s he began to cast aside his
philistine faith in the dreams of progress through hard work and the
renunciation of pleasure” (p. 48). Was progress a biological notion of
improvement for Spencer? The common misconception has Spencer defending
“progress” where some perish in the name of overall human flourishing.
Francis rightly presents a contrary argument that reconciles
evolutionary change with flourishing for all. His solution to this
quandary, Francis argues, “was to say that with progress drawing them
forwards, future human beings would remain part of the natural world
(and thus experience evolutionary change); yet, at the same time, they
would be above it and thus able to avoid its perils. His vision had
humanity ultimately evolving to the point where individuals avoided the
cruelty and destruction that the demands of hunger and reproduction had
imposed on other organisms” (p. 243).
Spencer’s writings on politics fit with some difficulty into his
philosophical system. Francis opposes the commonly-held view that
Spencer’s liberalism was fundamentally concerned with limiting social or
political control over the individual. In Francis’ view, Spencer was no
classical liberal (p. 250). More than this, he has been ill-served by
ethicists who take his later ideas as conservative or individualistic.
Instead, Francis emphasizes the originality of Spencer’s evolutionary
theory in which progress was determined by the planning of individuals
who increasingly moved into correspondence with each other (pp. 291-92). In this telling, justice rightly limits the sphere of the individual
for Spencer (p. 251).
Francis’ re-orientation of our thinking on Spencer raises the question
of whether we have correctly characterized classical liberalism at all. Our misconceptions about Spencer may simply be a severe example of our
misconception of classical political economists one and all.[1]
Political economists from Adam Smith through John Stuart Mill held that
individuals were connected to each other through sympathy. More than
this, they held that people are morally constrained by these
connections, in addition to the constraints imposed by the legal system.
Indeed, Smith characterized humans as unique among animals because they
connect with others through trade and discussion. From this
characterization of humans as sympathetically connected, he developed
his system of natural liberty in which individuals come to do the right
thing, to care for others as a result of the imaginative process of
changing position with each other. Sympathy was a staple of eighteenth
and nineteenth century theory of mind as developed by Scottish
philosophers, including Smith’s colleague, Dugald Stewart, and two
generations of Stewart’s students, James and John Stuart Mill. These
philosophers foresaw an extension of the range of sympathy to all
mankind (Mill, 1829, 2:278) and, as such, they became identified with
philanthropy.
So, too, Spencer held that as sympathy flourishes “natural selection” is
superseded by another, human law of social development (Peart and Levy,
2005, 220-22). For Spencer, the extension of sympathy to encompass
universal concern for others is evidence of a fully developed race.
Humans become civilized through the development of language and
sympathy. Spencer explicitly rejected social Darwinism entailing racial
development through misery induced by competition for resources and
argued to the contrary that individuals who have developed sympathetic
tendencies toward one another will come to reduce misery by reducing
births (Peart and Levy, 2005, 222).
But as we know, Spencer has been interpreted quite differently. As
Francis points out, when W. G. Sumner taught sociology using Spencer’s
_The Study of Sociology_, he omitted an analysis of Spencer’s final
chapter, on altruism (p. 189). And the device of sympathy was
successfully attacked by social commentators, such as the co-founder of
eugenics, W. R. Greg, who wished to see natural selection in humans
unimpeded by concern for others, the “unfit” (Peart and Levy 2005,
63-64). With the demise of sympathy as an analytical device late in the
century, the phrase “survival of the fittest” came to mean fittest
_absent concern_ for others. As Francis has demonstrated so
convincingly, this was a re-orienting of our interpretation of Spencer.
When sympathy disappeared from the toolkit of economics, we also began
to misremember classical political economy.
Note:
1. This of course is not to say that political economists spoke with one
and the same voice throughout the nineteenth century. It is, instead,
meant to suggest that from Smith through J. S. Mill, the dimension of
sympathy is important in their analyses.
References:
Mill, James. [1829] 1869. _Analysis of the Phenomena of the Human
Mind_ (edited by John Stuart Mill). London: Longmans, Green, Reader and
Dyer.
Peart, Sandra J. and David M. Levy. 2005. _The “Vanity of the
Philosopher”: From Equality to Hierarchy in Post-Classical Economics_.
Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Sandra J. Peart is dean of the Jepson School of Leadership Studies at
the University of Richmond. Previously, she was on the economics faculty
at the College of William and Mary, and Baldwin-Wallace College. She is
the past President of the History of Economics Society and, with David
Levy, co-directs the Summer Institute for the History of Economic
Thought. With David Levy, Peart has written on classical political
economy and the rise of eugenics in the nineteenth century. Her most
recent book, edited with David Levy, is _The Street Porter and the
Philosopher: Conversations on Analytical Egalitarianism_.
Copyright (c) 2008 by EH.Net. All rights reserved. This work may be
copied for non-profit educational uses if proper credit is given to the
author and the list. For other permission, please contact the EH.Net
Administrator (administrator@eh.net; Telephone: 513-529-2229). Published
by EH.Net (October 2008). All EH.Net reviews are archived at
http://www.eh.net/BookReview.
Book Review--Free Trade Nation: Commerce, Consumption and Civil
Frank Trentmann, _Free Trade Nation: Commerce, Consumption and Civil
Society in Modern Britain_. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008. xiv +
450 pp. £25/$50 (cloth), ISBN: 978-0-19-920920-0.
Reviewed for EH.NET by Peter J. Cain, Department of History, Sheffield
Hallam University.
In discussions and analyses of trade regimes in Britain from the late
nineteenth century through to the 1930s, protectionist campaigns have
hogged most of the attention of historians and free trade -- the ruling
regime before the 1930s -- has been relatively neglected. For that
reason alone, Frank Trentmann’s account of free trade and its supporters
would be a welcome addition to the literature: the bonus is that author,
Professor of History at Birkbeck College in London University, has not
only added a great deal to our knowledge through painstaking research
but has written about it with verve and energy and produced a most
readable volume on a subject that can be very dull indeed.
Trentmann’s case is that support for free trade in Edwardian Britain did
not mainly rely on calculations of interest, though he does not totally
ignore that, but was driven by a highly emotional, even passionate,
commitment akin to nationalist or religious fervor, and was seen by its
advocates as a crucial element in defining what they thought of as
Britishness. He admits that around 1900 the free trade movement was in
poor shape as foreign manufactured imports mounted and foreign tariffs
rose, and that some form of protectionism was being discussed even at
government level. Chamberlain’s tariff campaign starting in 1903 changed
all that. Faced with a clear and open challenge, the free trade cause
gathered an astonishing momentum which swept the previously ailing
Liberal party into office in 1906 and helped to keep them there through
two further elections. Masterminded by the Free Trade Union (which,
ironically, learned much from its rival the Tariff Reform League) the
electorate was aroused by a campaign of propaganda that successfully
associated protection with poverty by reminding the nation of the
“Hungry Forties” when protection had last held sway. The free traders
also succeeded in accusing protectionists of attempting to revive an
oppressive state; of undermining free trade’s natural tendency to bring
peace through economic interdependence; and of serving the interests of
a minority of landed and business elites whom they branded as selfish
vested interests, intent on creating monopolies and cartels that would
exploit the majority of the nation. As Trentmann acutely notes, the
campaign had a great effect in politicizing women as key consumers and,
more widely, in putting consumers’ interests at the center of policy,
something that anticipates many modern political movements. All this
made for a very lively politics that sometimes erupted into violence and
which led to extraordinary organizational developments, such as the
great series of lectures and entertainments that the FTU took to the
seaside towns of Britain.
After 1914, that momentum proved increasing hard to sustain. The war
shook faith in laisser-faire and made state control and big business
seem much more natural. Under state auspices, some protection was
introduced to regulate imports and ensure that they served the cause of
winning the war: free trade thus began to appear as a policy that
ministered to individual needs rather than to the national interest.
That encouraged the idea of “safeguarding” key industries after the war
in case conflict should erupt again; and the much higher unemployment
rates in the 1920s also undermined the long-held idea that free trade
naturally meant prosperity. Again, the rise of nutritional science meant
that more stress was placed on health and the need for the state to
improve it, rather than on the “cheapness” lauded by free traders that
now began to seem synonymous with undernourishment and poverty.
Moreover, free trade had clearly failed to keep the peace
internationally and radicals who had once been fervent Cobdenites were
thinking, by the 1920s, much more of the need for international
organizations like the League of Nations to regulate international
intercourse rather than relying on the invisible hand of the market. As
visions of world peace and prosperity under free trade were challenged,
empire increased in appeal and, naturally enough, greater stress was
placed on the need to bind the empire to Britain through tariffs. All
this served to undermine the great cultural movement that had
transformed the Edwardian political scene and by the time the world
economy began to collapse in the early 1930s, free trade was viewed not
as the cement binding the nation together but as the belief of a
relatively few staunch individualists who were out of touch with the
times.
There is far more in this fine book than can be represented here and
Trentmann makes a powerful case for his interpretation of the evidence.
It may be, however, that he underestimates the fragility of the
commitment to free trade before 1914, thus making its decline in the
1920s seem more precipitous than it was. Trentmann recognizes that
Chamberlain was a godsend to free traders but he does not say enough
about how easy he made it for them. Firstly, he split the Conservative
party thus making it impossible for them at the 1906 election; secondly,
in highlighting imperial preference he failed to garner the level of
support that a more wholehearted commitment to domestic protection would
have given. It may be true, as Trentmann contends, that effective
organization by free traders was crucial to victory in the 1910
elections: but it is still the case that the Liberals only won the two
elections of that year by a whisker, despite the fact that protectionism
was still hobbled by disunity. Protectionists were also unlucky in their
timing: Chamberlain launched his campaign just at the beginning of the
long Edwardian boom. Support for protection increased sharply in the
brief downturn of 1908-09, and if economic times had been harder free
trade might have disappeared sooner. If this is so, it may put in
question the depth of the moral commitment to free trade that Trentmann
lays such stress upon. It may also suggest the need for a
counterbalancing reinvestigation of the importance of interest in
maintaining free trade before 1914 and in undermining it after that date.
Peter J. Cain is Professor of History at Sheffield Hallam University,
UK. E-mail: p.j.cain@shu.ac.uk He is the author of _Hobson and
Imperialism: Radicalism, New Liberalism and Finance, 1887-1938_ (Oxford,
2002).
Copyright (c) 2008 by EH.Net. All rights reserved. This work may be
copied for non-profit educational uses if proper credit is given to the
author and the list. For other permission, please contact the EH.Net
Administrator (administrator@eh.net; Telephone: 513-529-2229). Published
by EH.Net (October 2008). All EH.Net reviews are archived at
http://www.eh.net/BookReview.
Society in Modern Britain_. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008. xiv +
450 pp. £25/$50 (cloth), ISBN: 978-0-19-920920-0.
Reviewed for EH.NET by Peter J. Cain, Department of History, Sheffield
Hallam University.
In discussions and analyses of trade regimes in Britain from the late
nineteenth century through to the 1930s, protectionist campaigns have
hogged most of the attention of historians and free trade -- the ruling
regime before the 1930s -- has been relatively neglected. For that
reason alone, Frank Trentmann’s account of free trade and its supporters
would be a welcome addition to the literature: the bonus is that author,
Professor of History at Birkbeck College in London University, has not
only added a great deal to our knowledge through painstaking research
but has written about it with verve and energy and produced a most
readable volume on a subject that can be very dull indeed.
Trentmann’s case is that support for free trade in Edwardian Britain did
not mainly rely on calculations of interest, though he does not totally
ignore that, but was driven by a highly emotional, even passionate,
commitment akin to nationalist or religious fervor, and was seen by its
advocates as a crucial element in defining what they thought of as
Britishness. He admits that around 1900 the free trade movement was in
poor shape as foreign manufactured imports mounted and foreign tariffs
rose, and that some form of protectionism was being discussed even at
government level. Chamberlain’s tariff campaign starting in 1903 changed
all that. Faced with a clear and open challenge, the free trade cause
gathered an astonishing momentum which swept the previously ailing
Liberal party into office in 1906 and helped to keep them there through
two further elections. Masterminded by the Free Trade Union (which,
ironically, learned much from its rival the Tariff Reform League) the
electorate was aroused by a campaign of propaganda that successfully
associated protection with poverty by reminding the nation of the
“Hungry Forties” when protection had last held sway. The free traders
also succeeded in accusing protectionists of attempting to revive an
oppressive state; of undermining free trade’s natural tendency to bring
peace through economic interdependence; and of serving the interests of
a minority of landed and business elites whom they branded as selfish
vested interests, intent on creating monopolies and cartels that would
exploit the majority of the nation. As Trentmann acutely notes, the
campaign had a great effect in politicizing women as key consumers and,
more widely, in putting consumers’ interests at the center of policy,
something that anticipates many modern political movements. All this
made for a very lively politics that sometimes erupted into violence and
which led to extraordinary organizational developments, such as the
great series of lectures and entertainments that the FTU took to the
seaside towns of Britain.
After 1914, that momentum proved increasing hard to sustain. The war
shook faith in laisser-faire and made state control and big business
seem much more natural. Under state auspices, some protection was
introduced to regulate imports and ensure that they served the cause of
winning the war: free trade thus began to appear as a policy that
ministered to individual needs rather than to the national interest.
That encouraged the idea of “safeguarding” key industries after the war
in case conflict should erupt again; and the much higher unemployment
rates in the 1920s also undermined the long-held idea that free trade
naturally meant prosperity. Again, the rise of nutritional science meant
that more stress was placed on health and the need for the state to
improve it, rather than on the “cheapness” lauded by free traders that
now began to seem synonymous with undernourishment and poverty.
Moreover, free trade had clearly failed to keep the peace
internationally and radicals who had once been fervent Cobdenites were
thinking, by the 1920s, much more of the need for international
organizations like the League of Nations to regulate international
intercourse rather than relying on the invisible hand of the market. As
visions of world peace and prosperity under free trade were challenged,
empire increased in appeal and, naturally enough, greater stress was
placed on the need to bind the empire to Britain through tariffs. All
this served to undermine the great cultural movement that had
transformed the Edwardian political scene and by the time the world
economy began to collapse in the early 1930s, free trade was viewed not
as the cement binding the nation together but as the belief of a
relatively few staunch individualists who were out of touch with the
times.
There is far more in this fine book than can be represented here and
Trentmann makes a powerful case for his interpretation of the evidence.
It may be, however, that he underestimates the fragility of the
commitment to free trade before 1914, thus making its decline in the
1920s seem more precipitous than it was. Trentmann recognizes that
Chamberlain was a godsend to free traders but he does not say enough
about how easy he made it for them. Firstly, he split the Conservative
party thus making it impossible for them at the 1906 election; secondly,
in highlighting imperial preference he failed to garner the level of
support that a more wholehearted commitment to domestic protection would
have given. It may be true, as Trentmann contends, that effective
organization by free traders was crucial to victory in the 1910
elections: but it is still the case that the Liberals only won the two
elections of that year by a whisker, despite the fact that protectionism
was still hobbled by disunity. Protectionists were also unlucky in their
timing: Chamberlain launched his campaign just at the beginning of the
long Edwardian boom. Support for protection increased sharply in the
brief downturn of 1908-09, and if economic times had been harder free
trade might have disappeared sooner. If this is so, it may put in
question the depth of the moral commitment to free trade that Trentmann
lays such stress upon. It may also suggest the need for a
counterbalancing reinvestigation of the importance of interest in
maintaining free trade before 1914 and in undermining it after that date.
Peter J. Cain is Professor of History at Sheffield Hallam University,
UK. E-mail: p.j.cain@shu.ac.uk He is the author of _Hobson and
Imperialism: Radicalism, New Liberalism and Finance, 1887-1938_ (Oxford,
2002).
Copyright (c) 2008 by EH.Net. All rights reserved. This work may be
copied for non-profit educational uses if proper credit is given to the
author and the list. For other permission, please contact the EH.Net
Administrator (administrator@eh.net; Telephone: 513-529-2229). Published
by EH.Net (October 2008). All EH.Net reviews are archived at
http://www.eh.net/BookReview.
Buffett Buys Stake in Chinese Battery Manufacturer
Question from my prof: "How did BYD get its battery know-how?"
New York Times
September 30, 2008
Buffett Buys Stake in Chinese Battery Manufacturer
By KEITH BRADSHER
HONG KONG — The investor Warren E. Buffett announced on Monday that he had agreed to buy a 9.89 percent stake in a Chinese battery manufacturer that plans to sell electric cars in the United States by 2010.
The MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company, will pay 1.8 billion Hong Kong dollars — about $230 million — for the stake in the battery maker, the BYD Company. Mr. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owns 87.4 percent of MidAmerican.
Based in Shenzhen, a mainland Chinese city adjacent to Hong Kong, BYD is one of the world’s largest makers of rechargeable batteries for cellphones and other uses. The company also has a fast-growing auto-making unit that accounts for nearly a third of its revenue and makes fuel-efficient compact and subcompact cars for the Chinese market.
The president of BYD, Wang Chuanfu, said that the alliance with Mr. Buffett was not just about raising capital for the manufacturer, which relies heavily on short-term debt.
“If BYD were to enter the North American market, Mr. Buffett’s investment would enhance the BYD brand name,” Mr. Wang said at a news conference in Hong Kong late Monday.
He added that BYD would sell cars in the United States and might even move up its plans for entering the market in 2010, by using Berkshire’s money to accelerate research.
David Sokol, the chairman of MidAmerican, said at the news conference with Mr. Wang that Berkshire Hathaway wanted to address climate change and considered electric cars as a way to do so. “This is a technology that can really be a game changer if we’re serious about reducing” emissions of carbon dioxide, the main gas associated with manmade global warming, Mr. Sokol said.
MidAmerican, a collection of electric utilities in the Midwest and West, sees plug-in electric cars as the best approach because the United States already has the infrastructure to supply electricity for recharging almost anywhere, Mr. Sokol said. By contrast, plans for hydrogen-fueled vehicles would require the installation of many hydrogen-fueling centers.
MidAmerican also sees promise in BYD’s battery technologies for storing wind energy and solar energy, Mr. Sokol said. Difficulties in storing energy for when the wind is not blowing or the sun is not shining have limited the deployment of these renewable energy technologies.
More broadly, Berkshire Hathaway wants to tap into China’s engineering talent and is doing so through BYD, which has 11,000 engineers and technicians among its 130,000 employees.
Mr. Buffett did not attend the news conference, but said in a statement that he was impressed with Mr. Wang’s record as a manager.
BYD cars on display at auto shows in China have tended to buttress the notion that the company’s expertise lies more in batteries than automotive design.
Gasoline-powered BYD models already sold in China are unmemorable economy cars with little of the styling flair on which Western automakers pride themselves. The uneven purple paint on one BYD car displayed at a recent Chinese car show drew a gaggle of amused American auto executives who made derisive remarks.
But expertise in automotive design and manufacturing is easy to acquire. Other Chinese automakers have hired Italian designers, while layoffs at Western automakers mean that many talented engineers are available.
Battery expertise is much harder to find. Mastering battery technology is regarded in the auto industry as the linchpin to the production of electric cars with the range, horsepower and torque needed to compete with gasoline-powered cars.
Mr. Sokol said that MidAmerican was impressed by BYD’s ability to produce electric cars that have a range of almost 190 miles on a single charge, and can be 80 percent recharged in 15 minutes. BYD plans to start selling electric cars in China at the end of this year.
BYD is working on all-electric cars, in which all of the power to move the vehicle comes from a series of batteries attached to an electric motor. That distinguishes them from hybrids like the Toyota Prius, which use an electric motor and battery to supplement the power from a gasoline engine.
General Motors plans to introduce in 2010 its electric car, the Chevrolet Volt, which is designed to be plugged in for recharging like the forthcoming BYD car. The Volt will also carry a 1.4-liter engine fueled by gasoline or a blend of ethanol and gasoline to recharge the battery when it starts to run low, a feature that BYD has not yet accepted as necessary.
BYD is using lithium-ion batteries. Japanese automakers have struggled to make sure that such batteries do not overheat and cause fires, an extremely rare occurrence but one with potentially deadly implications.
Mr. Wang said that his company’s batteries had a singular design that would not cause problems. “Even after a collision, it will not explode,” he said.
While Mr. Wang did not mention it, BYD may also have an advantage by starting with sales of electric cars in China. Unlike in the United States, automakers have very little financial liability for defective products in China, although the government does require recalls when products are demonstrably unsafe.
Mr. Sokol said that Berkshire Hathaway first became interested in BYD on a suggestion from Charles T. Munger, a longtime adviser to Mr. Buffett who is also the chairman of the Wesco Financial Corporation, another Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary.
Mr. Munger has invested his own money in a diversified fund, which he does not manage, that has owned shares in BYD for years. He was impressed by BYD and suggested to Mr. Buffett and Mr. Sokol that Berkshire Hathaway should take a stake, but then Mr. Munger recused himself from any further consideration of the possible investment, Mr. Sokol said.
New York Times
September 30, 2008
Buffett Buys Stake in Chinese Battery Manufacturer
By KEITH BRADSHER
HONG KONG — The investor Warren E. Buffett announced on Monday that he had agreed to buy a 9.89 percent stake in a Chinese battery manufacturer that plans to sell electric cars in the United States by 2010.
The MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company, will pay 1.8 billion Hong Kong dollars — about $230 million — for the stake in the battery maker, the BYD Company. Mr. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owns 87.4 percent of MidAmerican.
Based in Shenzhen, a mainland Chinese city adjacent to Hong Kong, BYD is one of the world’s largest makers of rechargeable batteries for cellphones and other uses. The company also has a fast-growing auto-making unit that accounts for nearly a third of its revenue and makes fuel-efficient compact and subcompact cars for the Chinese market.
The president of BYD, Wang Chuanfu, said that the alliance with Mr. Buffett was not just about raising capital for the manufacturer, which relies heavily on short-term debt.
“If BYD were to enter the North American market, Mr. Buffett’s investment would enhance the BYD brand name,” Mr. Wang said at a news conference in Hong Kong late Monday.
He added that BYD would sell cars in the United States and might even move up its plans for entering the market in 2010, by using Berkshire’s money to accelerate research.
David Sokol, the chairman of MidAmerican, said at the news conference with Mr. Wang that Berkshire Hathaway wanted to address climate change and considered electric cars as a way to do so. “This is a technology that can really be a game changer if we’re serious about reducing” emissions of carbon dioxide, the main gas associated with manmade global warming, Mr. Sokol said.
MidAmerican, a collection of electric utilities in the Midwest and West, sees plug-in electric cars as the best approach because the United States already has the infrastructure to supply electricity for recharging almost anywhere, Mr. Sokol said. By contrast, plans for hydrogen-fueled vehicles would require the installation of many hydrogen-fueling centers.
MidAmerican also sees promise in BYD’s battery technologies for storing wind energy and solar energy, Mr. Sokol said. Difficulties in storing energy for when the wind is not blowing or the sun is not shining have limited the deployment of these renewable energy technologies.
More broadly, Berkshire Hathaway wants to tap into China’s engineering talent and is doing so through BYD, which has 11,000 engineers and technicians among its 130,000 employees.
Mr. Buffett did not attend the news conference, but said in a statement that he was impressed with Mr. Wang’s record as a manager.
BYD cars on display at auto shows in China have tended to buttress the notion that the company’s expertise lies more in batteries than automotive design.
Gasoline-powered BYD models already sold in China are unmemorable economy cars with little of the styling flair on which Western automakers pride themselves. The uneven purple paint on one BYD car displayed at a recent Chinese car show drew a gaggle of amused American auto executives who made derisive remarks.
But expertise in automotive design and manufacturing is easy to acquire. Other Chinese automakers have hired Italian designers, while layoffs at Western automakers mean that many talented engineers are available.
Battery expertise is much harder to find. Mastering battery technology is regarded in the auto industry as the linchpin to the production of electric cars with the range, horsepower and torque needed to compete with gasoline-powered cars.
Mr. Sokol said that MidAmerican was impressed by BYD’s ability to produce electric cars that have a range of almost 190 miles on a single charge, and can be 80 percent recharged in 15 minutes. BYD plans to start selling electric cars in China at the end of this year.
BYD is working on all-electric cars, in which all of the power to move the vehicle comes from a series of batteries attached to an electric motor. That distinguishes them from hybrids like the Toyota Prius, which use an electric motor and battery to supplement the power from a gasoline engine.
General Motors plans to introduce in 2010 its electric car, the Chevrolet Volt, which is designed to be plugged in for recharging like the forthcoming BYD car. The Volt will also carry a 1.4-liter engine fueled by gasoline or a blend of ethanol and gasoline to recharge the battery when it starts to run low, a feature that BYD has not yet accepted as necessary.
BYD is using lithium-ion batteries. Japanese automakers have struggled to make sure that such batteries do not overheat and cause fires, an extremely rare occurrence but one with potentially deadly implications.
Mr. Wang said that his company’s batteries had a singular design that would not cause problems. “Even after a collision, it will not explode,” he said.
While Mr. Wang did not mention it, BYD may also have an advantage by starting with sales of electric cars in China. Unlike in the United States, automakers have very little financial liability for defective products in China, although the government does require recalls when products are demonstrably unsafe.
Mr. Sokol said that Berkshire Hathaway first became interested in BYD on a suggestion from Charles T. Munger, a longtime adviser to Mr. Buffett who is also the chairman of the Wesco Financial Corporation, another Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary.
Mr. Munger has invested his own money in a diversified fund, which he does not manage, that has owned shares in BYD for years. He was impressed by BYD and suggested to Mr. Buffett and Mr. Sokol that Berkshire Hathaway should take a stake, but then Mr. Munger recused himself from any further consideration of the possible investment, Mr. Sokol said.
Tata Motors Abandons Controversial Site
Wall Street Journal - October 4, 2008
Tata Motors Abandons Controversial Site
MUMBAI -- Tata Motors Ltd. said it will abandon a controversial plant site where it planned to build the world's cheapest car -- the Nano -- after sometimes violent protests made it too difficult and dangerous to proceed.
The move followed weeks of demonstrations by dispossessed farmers and political activists against the plant in India's impoverished West Bengal state. The protests forced a halt in construction at the site last month.
Tata's decision underlines a thorny issue for manufacturing investors in India: poor local communities -- sometimes backed by political or environmental activists -- are often suspicious of industrial projects planned for their regions, despite the promise of job creation and stimulation of local economies.
Although it has invested more than $300 million in its West Bengal factory, about an hour's drive from Kolkata, Tata said it had decided to relocate production of its $2,500 Nano minicar to another locale. The company said several Indian states expressed interest, but added that it hadn't yet selected an alternative site. The West Bengal site was expected to eventually generate almost 20,000 jobs.
While Tata Motors' plant in West Bengal was just months away from rolling out its first Nano, the protests by local farmers and politicians convinced Tata to cut its losses and move production, according to Ratan Tata, Tata Motors' chairman.
Protesters were demanding that more than 300 acres of the 1,000 acre site be returned to farmers who were forced by the state government to give up land.
"We don't see any change" to the opposition, Mr. Tata said. The relocation "was done for the well-being of our employees, safety of our contractors and vendors."
Negotiations between the state and farmers were going on for months, but few farmers were willing to accept more money or different tracts of land as compensation for their property. Meanwhile, Tata Motors said its project would lose money if it had to give back any land.
Tata Motor's inability to save its project -- despite the government's backing as well as its own reputation as one of the most powerful and socially responsible companies in India -- shows how set some rural dwellers and politicians are against the changes being triggered by India's rapid growth.
As India's economy has expanded more than 8% a year recently, local governments and businesses are increasingly asking rural dwellers to make way for new industrial complexes.
---
Santanu Choudhury contributed to this articl
Tata Motors Abandons Controversial Site
MUMBAI -- Tata Motors Ltd. said it will abandon a controversial plant site where it planned to build the world's cheapest car -- the Nano -- after sometimes violent protests made it too difficult and dangerous to proceed.
The move followed weeks of demonstrations by dispossessed farmers and political activists against the plant in India's impoverished West Bengal state. The protests forced a halt in construction at the site last month.
Tata's decision underlines a thorny issue for manufacturing investors in India: poor local communities -- sometimes backed by political or environmental activists -- are often suspicious of industrial projects planned for their regions, despite the promise of job creation and stimulation of local economies.
Although it has invested more than $300 million in its West Bengal factory, about an hour's drive from Kolkata, Tata said it had decided to relocate production of its $2,500 Nano minicar to another locale. The company said several Indian states expressed interest, but added that it hadn't yet selected an alternative site. The West Bengal site was expected to eventually generate almost 20,000 jobs.
While Tata Motors' plant in West Bengal was just months away from rolling out its first Nano, the protests by local farmers and politicians convinced Tata to cut its losses and move production, according to Ratan Tata, Tata Motors' chairman.
Protesters were demanding that more than 300 acres of the 1,000 acre site be returned to farmers who were forced by the state government to give up land.
"We don't see any change" to the opposition, Mr. Tata said. The relocation "was done for the well-being of our employees, safety of our contractors and vendors."
Negotiations between the state and farmers were going on for months, but few farmers were willing to accept more money or different tracts of land as compensation for their property. Meanwhile, Tata Motors said its project would lose money if it had to give back any land.
Tata Motor's inability to save its project -- despite the government's backing as well as its own reputation as one of the most powerful and socially responsible companies in India -- shows how set some rural dwellers and politicians are against the changes being triggered by India's rapid growth.
As India's economy has expanded more than 8% a year recently, local governments and businesses are increasingly asking rural dwellers to make way for new industrial complexes.
---
Santanu Choudhury contributed to this articl
Y. C. Wang, Billionaire Who Led Formosa Plastics, Is Dead at 91
New York Times - October 17, 2008
Y. C. Wang, Billionaire Who Led Formosa Plastics, Is Dead at 91
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Wang Yung-ching, who built his Formosa Plastics Group into Taiwan’s biggest and most profitable manufacturing conglomerate, died Wednesday in New Jersey while on a business trip. He was 91.
His death was announced in a statement by Formosa Plastics.
A farmer’s son with only an elementary school education, Mr. Wang set up a rice store with his two brothers in his early 20s. He then established the Formosa Plastics Corporation in 1954 with a loan from a United States aid program.
Forbes listed Mr. Wang as the island’s second-wealthiest person this year, with a personal fortune estimated at $6.8 billion.
Known widely as the God of Management, Mr. Wang expanded his plastics and petrochemicals empire and diversified into electronics, cosmetics, hospitals and car manufacturing.
A strong proponent of closer economic ties with rival China, Mr. Wang invested in power plants and plastics factories on the Chinese mainland. Formosa Plastics also set up chemical companies in the United States and owns several oil wells and properties rich in natural gas in Texas.
Mr. Wang is said to have lived an austere life, staying in an apartment inside his group’s headquarters in downtown Taipei. The group’s immense success is partly attributed to a corporate culture emphasizing thrift and hard work.
Formosa Plastics was accused in 1998 of dumping 3,000 tons of waste contaminated with high levels of mercury near the Cambodian port city of Sihanoukville, causing a local panic. The company later agreed to ship the waste back to Taiwan.
Formosa Plastics said Mr. Wang assigned seven senior managers to run the group in 2006 and they will continue to oversee operations collectively after his death.
Mr. Wang is survived by his wife, Lee Pao-chu; two sons; seven daughters; four sisters; and one brother. His son, Winston Wang, runs Grace T.H.W., a group active in petrochemicals and electronics in China. His daughter Cher Wang and her husband, Chen Wen-chi, run the chip developer VIA Technologies.
Y. C. Wang, Billionaire Who Led Formosa Plastics, Is Dead at 91
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Wang Yung-ching, who built his Formosa Plastics Group into Taiwan’s biggest and most profitable manufacturing conglomerate, died Wednesday in New Jersey while on a business trip. He was 91.
His death was announced in a statement by Formosa Plastics.
A farmer’s son with only an elementary school education, Mr. Wang set up a rice store with his two brothers in his early 20s. He then established the Formosa Plastics Corporation in 1954 with a loan from a United States aid program.
Forbes listed Mr. Wang as the island’s second-wealthiest person this year, with a personal fortune estimated at $6.8 billion.
Known widely as the God of Management, Mr. Wang expanded his plastics and petrochemicals empire and diversified into electronics, cosmetics, hospitals and car manufacturing.
A strong proponent of closer economic ties with rival China, Mr. Wang invested in power plants and plastics factories on the Chinese mainland. Formosa Plastics also set up chemical companies in the United States and owns several oil wells and properties rich in natural gas in Texas.
Mr. Wang is said to have lived an austere life, staying in an apartment inside his group’s headquarters in downtown Taipei. The group’s immense success is partly attributed to a corporate culture emphasizing thrift and hard work.
Formosa Plastics was accused in 1998 of dumping 3,000 tons of waste contaminated with high levels of mercury near the Cambodian port city of Sihanoukville, causing a local panic. The company later agreed to ship the waste back to Taiwan.
Formosa Plastics said Mr. Wang assigned seven senior managers to run the group in 2006 and they will continue to oversee operations collectively after his death.
Mr. Wang is survived by his wife, Lee Pao-chu; two sons; seven daughters; four sisters; and one brother. His son, Winston Wang, runs Grace T.H.W., a group active in petrochemicals and electronics in China. His daughter Cher Wang and her husband, Chen Wen-chi, run the chip developer VIA Technologies.
Scandal Hinders I.M.F.’s Role in Global Lending
New York Times - October 22, 2008
Scandal Hinders I.M.F.’s Role in Global Lending
By MARK LANDLER
WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund, onetime firefighter for the global economy, is suddenly being called back into action, even as its chief stumbles on his way to the rescue.
The fund is nearing agreements to make emergency loans to Iceland and Ukraine, and discussing aid packages with Pakistan and Hungary — moves that would thrust it into the thick of a global crisis after a frustrating period in which it was a bystander.
It is a welcome return to form for the fund, which lent billions of dollars to crisis-torn economies in Indonesia, Mexico and Argentina — and was later shunned by countries for the strict condition that it attached to bailouts.
Yet at the fund’s headquarters here, the water-cooler talk is all about a crisis in the life of its managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who is being investigated after accusations that he abused his power in an affair with a female co-worker, who resigned in August.
“It’s coming at an extremely inconvenient time for the fund,” said Michael Mussa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former chief economist of the fund. “If there is a groundswell against him, it would affect the institution’s ability to do business.”
Given the fund’s rapidly expanding obligations around the world, Mr. Mussa and other experts said it needed to resolve Mr. Strauss-Kahn’s case quickly. They point to Paul D. Wolfowitz, who bitterly fought a campaign to oust him as president of the World Bank because of his personal conduct — dividing the staff and depleting the institution before he resigned.
This scandal, they say, is also undermining the fund’s credibility at a time when world leaders are embarking on an ambitious effort to write new rules for the international financial marketplace — a discussion in which the fund should, by all accounts, play a major role.
Mr. Strauss-Kahn has issued an apology to staff members and to the woman with whom he carried on the brief relationship. The fund’s executive board has hired a law firm to investigate the charges against him, and hopes to make a decision after it receives the firm’s report by the end of the month.
By then, officials at the fund say, it could be lending emergency funds to at least two countries, and perhaps three. As the financial crisis hop-scotches around the world, it is infecting emerging-market economies from Central Europe to Latin America. For several countries, struggling with a sudden flight of foreign capital, the fund is emerging as a necessary last resort to stabilize their banks and prevent a wholesale economic collapse.
“The bank bailouts in Europe and the United States have, if anything, put more pressure on emerging markets, making them look even riskier,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard. “It’s happening faster than I would have thought, even two weeks ago.”
As the roster of troubled countries grows, the list of places they can go for help has not. The United States and Western Europe are in the middle of their own costly financial bailouts. While huge sovereign wealth funds have sprung up in the Middle East and Asia, economists say borrowing from them could prove more painful than borrowing from the fund.
Iceland, for example, turned to Russia after the crisis set off a collapse in its currency, overwhelming its three main banks, which had borrowed heavily in foreign currencies. After sending a delegation to Moscow to negotiate a loan of up to 4 billion euros ($5.2 billion), it came up empty-handed.
Now, the Icelandic government says it is close to a deal with the fund, which fund officials said could be supplemented by money from Russia, Norway and Japan. The package would be worth $6 billion, these officials said, of which about $1 billion would come from the fund itself.
“Iceland must have faced the cold reality that however distasteful they found borrowing from the I.M.F., it was preferable to borrowing from Russia,” said Mr. Rogoff, also a former chief economist at the fund.
If Iceland borrows money from the fund, it would be the first Western country to do so since Britain in 1976, which was then suffering from a combination of soaring inflation and a swooning currency.
The fund, officials say, is in advanced talks for a loan of up to $15 billion to Ukraine, which suffers some of the same ailments as Iceland, with an added measure of political turmoil from a split in its governing coalition. Its inflation rate, at 24.6 percent, is the highest in Europe.
Agreements with Pakistan and Hungary appear farther away, according to fund officials. Pakistani officials met with the fund on Tuesday in Dubai. The country’s economy has deteriorated, along with the political and security situation, as the Pakistani military skirmishes with Taliban and Al Qaeda militants in the frontier region near the Afghan border.
Prime Minister Asif Ali Zardari traveled to Beijing last week to ask for aid, but was rebuffed. With the United States unlikely to pitch in, analysts said, Pakistan had little choice but to turn to the fund — a politically unpopular step that the government has characterized as a last resort.
Hungary has said much the same thing, and last week it obtained a 5.6 billion euro ($7.2 billion) loan from the European Central Bank to help meet debt obligations denominated in foreign currencies. But with its currency, the forint, badly damaged by spillover effects from the crisis, Hungary will need additional assistance from the fund, some analysts predicted.
All these countries are suffering some form of a balance-of-payments crisis — an affliction the fund knows well from its experience in crises in Southeast Asia and Latin America in the 1990s.
Officials said the fund had about $200 billion available for loans — a modest sum compared with the cost of the banking bailouts being rushed through by the United States, Britain and other European countries, but enough to stabilize the likes of Iceland or Ukraine.
Publicly, Mr. Strauss-Kahn has maintained a confident stance, issuing statements that the fund stands ready to help countries and giving what staff members described as a rousing speech during its recent annual meeting. He also pledged to cooperate with the fund’s investigation of his sexual relationship with Piroska Nagy, a former senior official in the Africa department.
A former French finance minister, Mr. Strauss-Kahn, 59, had been popular with the executive board, despite ousting some respected fund officials and pushing through a painful cost-cutting program.
But the details of his affair — and questions about the handling of Ms. Nagy’s departure last summer — have left staff members slack-jawed, according to several officials. Mr. Strauss-Kahn tried to address those concerns with a lengthy apology e-mail message to the staff on Monday.
The fund, officials noted, is a highly centralized institution, where power flows from the managing director. Mr. Strauss-Kahn will have to sign off on the conditions and details of each of its emergency loans.
If Mr. Strauss-Kahn is consumed defending his job over the next few weeks or months, these officials said, it would hamper the fund’s ability to move as quickly as it needs to in responding to the crisis.
Scandal Hinders I.M.F.’s Role in Global Lending
By MARK LANDLER
WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund, onetime firefighter for the global economy, is suddenly being called back into action, even as its chief stumbles on his way to the rescue.
The fund is nearing agreements to make emergency loans to Iceland and Ukraine, and discussing aid packages with Pakistan and Hungary — moves that would thrust it into the thick of a global crisis after a frustrating period in which it was a bystander.
It is a welcome return to form for the fund, which lent billions of dollars to crisis-torn economies in Indonesia, Mexico and Argentina — and was later shunned by countries for the strict condition that it attached to bailouts.
Yet at the fund’s headquarters here, the water-cooler talk is all about a crisis in the life of its managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who is being investigated after accusations that he abused his power in an affair with a female co-worker, who resigned in August.
“It’s coming at an extremely inconvenient time for the fund,” said Michael Mussa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former chief economist of the fund. “If there is a groundswell against him, it would affect the institution’s ability to do business.”
Given the fund’s rapidly expanding obligations around the world, Mr. Mussa and other experts said it needed to resolve Mr. Strauss-Kahn’s case quickly. They point to Paul D. Wolfowitz, who bitterly fought a campaign to oust him as president of the World Bank because of his personal conduct — dividing the staff and depleting the institution before he resigned.
This scandal, they say, is also undermining the fund’s credibility at a time when world leaders are embarking on an ambitious effort to write new rules for the international financial marketplace — a discussion in which the fund should, by all accounts, play a major role.
Mr. Strauss-Kahn has issued an apology to staff members and to the woman with whom he carried on the brief relationship. The fund’s executive board has hired a law firm to investigate the charges against him, and hopes to make a decision after it receives the firm’s report by the end of the month.
By then, officials at the fund say, it could be lending emergency funds to at least two countries, and perhaps three. As the financial crisis hop-scotches around the world, it is infecting emerging-market economies from Central Europe to Latin America. For several countries, struggling with a sudden flight of foreign capital, the fund is emerging as a necessary last resort to stabilize their banks and prevent a wholesale economic collapse.
“The bank bailouts in Europe and the United States have, if anything, put more pressure on emerging markets, making them look even riskier,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard. “It’s happening faster than I would have thought, even two weeks ago.”
As the roster of troubled countries grows, the list of places they can go for help has not. The United States and Western Europe are in the middle of their own costly financial bailouts. While huge sovereign wealth funds have sprung up in the Middle East and Asia, economists say borrowing from them could prove more painful than borrowing from the fund.
Iceland, for example, turned to Russia after the crisis set off a collapse in its currency, overwhelming its three main banks, which had borrowed heavily in foreign currencies. After sending a delegation to Moscow to negotiate a loan of up to 4 billion euros ($5.2 billion), it came up empty-handed.
Now, the Icelandic government says it is close to a deal with the fund, which fund officials said could be supplemented by money from Russia, Norway and Japan. The package would be worth $6 billion, these officials said, of which about $1 billion would come from the fund itself.
“Iceland must have faced the cold reality that however distasteful they found borrowing from the I.M.F., it was preferable to borrowing from Russia,” said Mr. Rogoff, also a former chief economist at the fund.
If Iceland borrows money from the fund, it would be the first Western country to do so since Britain in 1976, which was then suffering from a combination of soaring inflation and a swooning currency.
The fund, officials say, is in advanced talks for a loan of up to $15 billion to Ukraine, which suffers some of the same ailments as Iceland, with an added measure of political turmoil from a split in its governing coalition. Its inflation rate, at 24.6 percent, is the highest in Europe.
Agreements with Pakistan and Hungary appear farther away, according to fund officials. Pakistani officials met with the fund on Tuesday in Dubai. The country’s economy has deteriorated, along with the political and security situation, as the Pakistani military skirmishes with Taliban and Al Qaeda militants in the frontier region near the Afghan border.
Prime Minister Asif Ali Zardari traveled to Beijing last week to ask for aid, but was rebuffed. With the United States unlikely to pitch in, analysts said, Pakistan had little choice but to turn to the fund — a politically unpopular step that the government has characterized as a last resort.
Hungary has said much the same thing, and last week it obtained a 5.6 billion euro ($7.2 billion) loan from the European Central Bank to help meet debt obligations denominated in foreign currencies. But with its currency, the forint, badly damaged by spillover effects from the crisis, Hungary will need additional assistance from the fund, some analysts predicted.
All these countries are suffering some form of a balance-of-payments crisis — an affliction the fund knows well from its experience in crises in Southeast Asia and Latin America in the 1990s.
Officials said the fund had about $200 billion available for loans — a modest sum compared with the cost of the banking bailouts being rushed through by the United States, Britain and other European countries, but enough to stabilize the likes of Iceland or Ukraine.
Publicly, Mr. Strauss-Kahn has maintained a confident stance, issuing statements that the fund stands ready to help countries and giving what staff members described as a rousing speech during its recent annual meeting. He also pledged to cooperate with the fund’s investigation of his sexual relationship with Piroska Nagy, a former senior official in the Africa department.
A former French finance minister, Mr. Strauss-Kahn, 59, had been popular with the executive board, despite ousting some respected fund officials and pushing through a painful cost-cutting program.
But the details of his affair — and questions about the handling of Ms. Nagy’s departure last summer — have left staff members slack-jawed, according to several officials. Mr. Strauss-Kahn tried to address those concerns with a lengthy apology e-mail message to the staff on Monday.
The fund, officials noted, is a highly centralized institution, where power flows from the managing director. Mr. Strauss-Kahn will have to sign off on the conditions and details of each of its emergency loans.
If Mr. Strauss-Kahn is consumed defending his job over the next few weeks or months, these officials said, it would hamper the fund’s ability to move as quickly as it needs to in responding to the crisis.
Argentina Nationalizes $30 Billion in Private Pensions
New York Times - October 22, 2008
Argentina Nationalizes $30 Billion in Private Pensions
By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO
BRASÍLIA — Argentina’s government said Tuesday that it would seek to nationalize nearly $30 billion in private pension funds to protect retirees from falling stock and bond prices as the global financial crisis continues.
The measure, confirmed in a speech in Buenos Aires late Tuesday by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina’s president, was criticized by political opponents and analysts as a move to shore up government coffers to try to head off a fiscal crisis in 2009, when Argentina might be struggling to make billions of dollars in debt payments.
The announcement sent the Buenos Aires stock market, the Merval, down nearly 11 percent, and led analysts to question whether the nationalization, which is subject to approval by the Argentine legislature, puts property rights at risk and threatens the rule of law in the country.
It may be the first time a Latin American government has expropriated cash. The move is expected to give the government breathing room as falling commodity prices drive down tax revenue from agriculture by as much as $6 billion next year, according to some estimates. Commodity prices have fallen as fears of a global slowdown have grown.
Argentina’s precarious fiscal situation predated the global financial crisis.
Argentina is one of the world’s top five exporters of beef, soy, corn and wheat, and falling prices for those commodities have diminished the government’s main sources of revenue. The country spent much of its windfall during this decade’s commodity boom paying off debts and subsidizing fuel and other consumer items to stimulate rapid growth.
Now it may face a struggle to pay some $22.4 billion in debt obligations and other payments due next year, Daniel Kerner, an analyst with Eurasia Group, a risk consulting firm, said.
So far, other governments in South America, including Brazil’s and Chile’s, have said they will tap Central Bank reserves or stabilization funds amassed during the commodity boom to help important export industries withstand the global credit crisis.
Mrs. Kirchner characterized Argentina’s move as government protectionism in line with bank bailouts in Europe and the United States. “We are making this decision in an international context in which the leading countries in and out of the G-8 are protecting their banks, while we are protecting our retirees and workers,” she said in a televised speech.
She dismissed criticism that the move was simply a grab for cash, noting that the private pension plan put in place 14 years ago had produced a low rate of return for holders this year.
But analysts said the move could hurt Argentina. “This will be a major blow to the country’s isolated capital markets, and will probably dampen consumer and investor confidence further,” Mr. Kerner said.
The opposition leader Elisa Carrió, who ran against Mrs. Kirchner for president, told Radio Mitre on Tuesday that the government was trying to “loot the funds of retirees.”
According to the plan, all the assets in individual accounts would be transferred to the state’s “pay as you go” system, and affiliation to the state system would be mandatory, effectively putting an end to the current dual system.
Regional elections are scheduled for October 2009. By taking over the pension funds the government can continue to spend on programs that help it retain political support, which Mrs. Kirchner lacks after a debilitating four-month strike by farmers over export taxes that ultimately ended in defeat for the government.
If the move is approved, her government may have secured an important electoral asset, which could help guarantee Mrs. Kirchner’s political survival.
Vinod Sreeharsha contributed reporting from Buenos Aires.
Argentina Nationalizes $30 Billion in Private Pensions
By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO
BRASÍLIA — Argentina’s government said Tuesday that it would seek to nationalize nearly $30 billion in private pension funds to protect retirees from falling stock and bond prices as the global financial crisis continues.
The measure, confirmed in a speech in Buenos Aires late Tuesday by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina’s president, was criticized by political opponents and analysts as a move to shore up government coffers to try to head off a fiscal crisis in 2009, when Argentina might be struggling to make billions of dollars in debt payments.
The announcement sent the Buenos Aires stock market, the Merval, down nearly 11 percent, and led analysts to question whether the nationalization, which is subject to approval by the Argentine legislature, puts property rights at risk and threatens the rule of law in the country.
It may be the first time a Latin American government has expropriated cash. The move is expected to give the government breathing room as falling commodity prices drive down tax revenue from agriculture by as much as $6 billion next year, according to some estimates. Commodity prices have fallen as fears of a global slowdown have grown.
Argentina’s precarious fiscal situation predated the global financial crisis.
Argentina is one of the world’s top five exporters of beef, soy, corn and wheat, and falling prices for those commodities have diminished the government’s main sources of revenue. The country spent much of its windfall during this decade’s commodity boom paying off debts and subsidizing fuel and other consumer items to stimulate rapid growth.
Now it may face a struggle to pay some $22.4 billion in debt obligations and other payments due next year, Daniel Kerner, an analyst with Eurasia Group, a risk consulting firm, said.
So far, other governments in South America, including Brazil’s and Chile’s, have said they will tap Central Bank reserves or stabilization funds amassed during the commodity boom to help important export industries withstand the global credit crisis.
Mrs. Kirchner characterized Argentina’s move as government protectionism in line with bank bailouts in Europe and the United States. “We are making this decision in an international context in which the leading countries in and out of the G-8 are protecting their banks, while we are protecting our retirees and workers,” she said in a televised speech.
She dismissed criticism that the move was simply a grab for cash, noting that the private pension plan put in place 14 years ago had produced a low rate of return for holders this year.
But analysts said the move could hurt Argentina. “This will be a major blow to the country’s isolated capital markets, and will probably dampen consumer and investor confidence further,” Mr. Kerner said.
The opposition leader Elisa Carrió, who ran against Mrs. Kirchner for president, told Radio Mitre on Tuesday that the government was trying to “loot the funds of retirees.”
According to the plan, all the assets in individual accounts would be transferred to the state’s “pay as you go” system, and affiliation to the state system would be mandatory, effectively putting an end to the current dual system.
Regional elections are scheduled for October 2009. By taking over the pension funds the government can continue to spend on programs that help it retain political support, which Mrs. Kirchner lacks after a debilitating four-month strike by farmers over export taxes that ultimately ended in defeat for the government.
If the move is approved, her government may have secured an important electoral asset, which could help guarantee Mrs. Kirchner’s political survival.
Vinod Sreeharsha contributed reporting from Buenos Aires.
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